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It’s going on again. It is hardly clear that SPD will now negotiate with union about a large coalition or toleration of a CDU minority government, Social Democrats draw red lines, CDU formulates black Ultimates. “Poker has started”, Tagesspiegel is titled – even before Federal president Frank-Walter Steinmeier receives incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel, SPD chairman Martin Schulz and CSU chief Horst Seehofer on Thursday for first exploratory round.
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Some in SPD appreciate chances of unification on 50:50, like FDP at beginning of failed Jamaica negotiations. How else should it be: SPD is very difficult to come down from its categorical no to a new black-red alliance. In order to convince her base, she wants to sell herself as expensive as possible. She sees a good chance against a weakened chancellor.
CDU and CSU, in turn, want to face impression that after burst of black-yellow-green talks y are ready to reanzubandeln with SPD at any cost. Because only so Merkel can remain chancellor.
It is to be feared that at end of probes II and subsequent negotiations of previous government partners will be similar questionable compromises as 2013. For example, both sides agreed on expensive pension with 63 (SPD) against even more expensive extension of maternal pension (union) – at expense of contributors and younger, who will have nothing of both.
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To prevent a repetition, re would be a good way out: Merkel should involve Greens in a minority government based on rapprochement of two parties during Jamaica probing, which supports SPD. This would have several advantages: The skeptical supporters of SPD and Union would be decreasing suspicion that previous alliance would simply be extended. Instead, a new tri-coloured government model would be created, with two directly involved parties and anor, SPD, which, as a Magdeburg partner, takes influence on important issues, but does not directly participate in government’s work. With option of changing majorities in or matters.
Green as a substantive corrective
Above all, Greens could form a substantive corrective for central issues, to two larger, not so large parties:
- In climate policy, Greens are committed to a consequent phasing out of coal, because Germany can only comply with its commitment to CO2 reduction. The CDU and SPD, on or hand, traditionally form common coal lobby, which has also been shown in Jamaica talks. A compromise could look similar to that in Jamaica paper: Switching off from five to seven coal-fired power plants to 2021 – as an entry into coal phase-out.
- In migration policy, Greens are demanding that stop of family recovering for refugees with subsidiary protection decided by grand coalition be phased out in March. The union wants to prolong it. The SPD will hardly oppose this with regard to its constituents. Here, too, a compromise could look like solution to which CSU and Greens had largely agreed: extension of catch-stop, but exceptions for unaccompanied minors and refugees, which are provably integrated.
- In terms of transport and economic policy, Greens demand medium-term for combustion engine – against fierce opposition from car industry and autolobby at Union and SPD. Here a black-green-red agreement could be to support car manufacturers in ir reorientation towards environmentally friendly drives – and to set a target for end of CO2 production by cars. Similar to “breathing” ceiling required by CSU as a target mark for influx of refugees.
- In case of public finances, Greens are a sustainability party like Union against new sovereign debt. The SPD as a State party, on or hand, is always inclined to spend more money than Confederation does. In case of Soli, however, SPD and Greens could jointly curb demand to reduce levy too quickly, which CDU has taken over from FDP. In view of full state treasury, it is likely that all four parties could agree on a moderate relief for citizens with regard to income tax.
