CLEVELAND,Ohio — If making the NCAA Tournament were based on luck, Kenpom suggests the Mid-American Conference could be a two-bid league.
Kenpom is one of a myriad of statistical sites that rank every Division I team in the nation based on a myriad of analytics. Those analytics can include many things, including offensive and defensive efficiency, strength of schedule, and luck.
Among the AP Top 25 teams only Kansas checks in among the top 15 in Kenpom’s luck list. Arizona is the only other AP ranked team in the top 30 by Kenpom. USC, a team that has been in and out of the AP Top 25 this season, is considered the luckiest team in the country.
According to Kenpom’s metric, after the past weekend’s games, Akron from the MAC began the week as the No. 2 luckiest team in the nation. Central Michigan is No. 47 and Miami is No. 64. Even with luck, the RedHawks record (10-17) leaves them out of the discussion.
But with four games to play, Central Michigan (16-11), behind the nation’s leading scorer, Marcus Keene (29.8 ppg), would be a solid NCAA bubble team based on luck. And Akron (22-5) would not only be a NCAA Tournament lock, but quite possibly a top-line seed.
Of course, following the MAC Tournament (March 9-11 at Quicken Loans Arena), the MAC will probably not be that lucky when it comes to tournament selections. Projections are Ohio University, Akron or Bowling Green will advance to the NCAA with the automatic bid.
The luck of the league after the NCAA Selection Committee does its work will predictably fall in line with the luck of the rest of the MAC, leaving it once again a one-bid league.
Half of the conference ranks well inside the bottom 100 teams in the nation when it comes to Kenpom’s luck. That might explain why some of these anticipated strong MAC teams are sitting where they are.
Eastern Michigan (13-14), a team expected to be one of the best in the MAC, began the week at No. 336 out of 351, and losers of six straight. Toledo (14-13), a team that has played seven overtime games (3-4) this season, is No. 297. Ohio (17-8), which lost reigning MAC Player of the Year Antonio Campbell at midseason (knee), is at No. 282. Kent State (15-12), a team that has lost three overtime games at home, is No. 280.
Buffalo (15-12), even though it began the week with a six-game winning streak, is at No. 271. And Western Michigan (11-15), which is now on a four-game winning streak, is No. 270. The remaining three teams fall in the general range of average — Northern Illinois (No. 202), Bowling Green (No. 164) and Ball State (No. 150).
When the MAC tournament begins, the good teams will likely rise to play in the title game. But perhaps a bit of luck could ultimately determine the winner.
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