Economist Dr. George Mokrzan addresses members of the Northern Medina County Chamber Alliance at Mapleside Farms Jan. 19.Brian Lisik/special to cleveland.com
BRUNSWICK — At its first formal meeting of 2017, the Northern Medina County Chamber Alliance’s guest speaker, economist Dr. George Mokrzan, predicted a mixed, but generally positive, economic outlook for the coming year.
Meanwhile, local leaders said the diversity of Medina County businesses, and their ability to adjust to the changing landscape, has left the area’s overall economy relatively unscathed by many of the national and international ups and downs.
Mokrzan said he is “much more positive than I was this time last year” at the Jan. 19 meeting, as he pointed to rising long-term interest rates; a more positive outlook by investors, heartened by Trump administration policy positions including tax cuts; declining home vacancy rates; a remarkable surge in manufacturing growth across the Rustbelt – particularly Michigan and Ohio; and an unemployment rate that dropped below 5 percent in 2016.
Nationally, Mokrzan said the typical flush of enthusiasm among business leaders following a Presidential election seem to be more than a passing fancy, given real-world indicators such as increased orders.
Midwest rebound
However, Mokrzan said, these gains must be balanced against a still soft “goods side” of the economy – manufacturing, mining, agriculture – where Mokrzan anticipates only “gradual improvement” in 2017.
“Business investment will likely begin to recover from a two-year slump (but) the strength of the recovery in business capital spending will depend on the strength of the overall goods markets,” Mokrzan said. “Especially in Ohio and other goods manufacturing markets.”
Particularly concerning is a “manufacturing slowdown” that occured in late 2016, due to some degree to dipping energy prices and the slowing of the natural gas drilling industry across Ohio, Mokrzan said.
Still, while overall hiring rates in the state dipped in 2016, Ohio remained on par with Southern states – the so-called “Sunbelt” – and ahead of states in the Northeast when it came to hiring.
Local impact
Closer to home, Brunswick Community and Economic Grant Aungst and Bethany Dentler, executive director of the Medina County Economic Development Corporation, pointed to a diverse business base as reason for general stability in the county.Augnst said he is particularly positive about the local manufacturing industry.
“I would guess the manufacturing sector would grow across the entire region,” he said. “And I think Medina County in particular is growing at a good clip.”
Dentler called 2016 a “solid year” for Medina County businesses in general.
“We didn’t see a blip,” she said. “I think Medina County has great companies throughout the county and our economic base is diverse enough – companies that fills a niche – that I think has protected us somewhat from the overall downturn.”
Former Medina County commissioner, Brunswick councilman and Brunswick economic development director, Tim Smith, pointed to one Brunswick-based company in particular to illustrate this sort of diversity and ability to adjust to market trends even within a single company.
“Tru-Cut Saw was selling to the auto industry, but when that industry slowed down, they began making saws for the lumber industry,” Smith said. “And then when the economy came back, they had two markets.”
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