CLEVELAND, Ohio — Northeast Ohio has been experiencing plenty of rain, with some thunderstorms, since early this morning, and they’re not expected to slow down anytime through the rest of the day. But, thunderstorms in February?
It’s definitely not a common occurrence, so let’s look at how this is happening.
First, for thunderstorms in the winter in general, you of course need warm temperatures, otherwise we’d be experiencing snow. Today, not only did a passing warm front ramp up temperatures, but very strong southerly flow is dragging in that warm, moist air from the Gulf. Ohio is so flat, that almost any day winds are out of the south, that warm southern air invades the region.
Temperatures might reach so warm, in fact, that Cleveland could reach the 60-degree high temperature record set back in 1925. Right now the high is forecasted to reach just 58 degrees, but we’re close enough to where a tied record is possible.
The second most important ingredient in thunderstorms is a source of instability. That warm front is easily one source, as this pushes the colder air ahead up into the atmosphere. As the air moves upward, it cools to its dew point, forming condensation, plenty of rain, and this in turn increases its instability.
But the warm front isn’t the only lifting source in the atmosphere, a low pressure system is also doing the same — so it’s basically a double whammy for instability, allowing rain showers to grow strong enough to produce lightning.
This happened not too long ago, back in mid-January, with a similar atmospheric setup: strong southerly flow and a passing low pressure system.
Why are winter thunderstorms so rare? And why is Cleveland getting them in January?
What do you think of this weather? Do you prefer the warmth with some rain, or would you rather the cold and snow?
Today’s forecast: Possible high temperature record, lots of rain
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Kelly Reardon is cleveland.com’s meteorologist. Please follow me on Facebook and Twitter @kreardon0818.
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