Analytics are big in sports. It becomes all about the numbers — breaking down stats and trends, trying to find meaning.
But sometimes even the numbers can’t tell the whole story. Case in point, the Rancho Cotate girls basketball team.
By the numbers, the Cougars aren’t especially impressive. In the four seasons since Mario Newton took over in Rohnert Park, the Cougars have won seven North Bay League games. Total.
But consider this — they started at zero. They had a prior history of zero. It was starting to look and feel like a trend.
But it’s a trend no more.
So let’s look at some Rancho Cotate girls basketball numbers:
Zero: The number of wins the Cougars had in league games in 2012-13 and again in 2013-14.
One: The number of league wins the Cougars earned in 2014-15.
Two: The number of NBL wins the Cougars earned last year.
Three: The number of concussions senior Kayla Velles, a rebounding monster, sustained over approximately 12 months when her season was ended in early December.
Four: The number of league wins the Cougars earned this season — the most since 2011-12.
Five: The number of rebounds per game junior Camille Spackman is averaging this season.
Six: The number of rebounds per game sophomore Jessica Phillips is averaging.
Seven: The number of total wins the Cougars compiled in each of Newton’s first two seasons: 2013-14 and 2014-15.
Eight: The number of girls on the roster two years ago when the team went 2-12 in the NBL.
Nine: The number of underclassmen on the Cougars’ current roster.
Ten: The number of overall wins the Cougars reached last season.
And then consider this number. It’s not even a number really, because school officials don’t know what it is exactly. But it’s the number of years since a girls basketball team from Rancho Cotate has made the playoffs.
Best guess? More than 25 years.
It was the mid-’90s when the Cougars last played in the North Coast Section playoffs.
The Cougars have very likely ended their playoff drought. The NCS seeding committee, which meets Sunday to set the tournament bracket, has long put a threshold of an overall .500 winning percentage high on the list of criteria for entry. It’s been a wee stretch since the Cougars have managed that.
But for the first time in what feels like forever to Cougar fans, the girls from The Ranch have done it. They are 13-13 and 4-10 in the competitive North Bay League. They have fared well against decent preseason competition.
“It’s literally amazing,” Spackman said.
Spackman, a post player who is averaging more than 11 points per game, along with two assists and one block, said the team came into the season with confidence that this could be their year to do it, but the relief of having gotten there is palpable.
“Our chemistry this year has been amazing,” she said.
It’s very likely a bond forged by trying times. Wins have been hard to come by and it’s been tough.
“They are so excited to get back on the basketball court. None of them were ready to see the season end,” said Newton, now in his fourth year. “It’s the beginning of other sports, but we are not done here yet. It’s a sense of excitement.”
NCS basketball selection show
Time: 11:30 a.m. Sunday
Online: www.NFHSnetwork.com
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