When it comes to advanced analytics in sports, the science is inexact. The numbers can’t take into account things like injuries, trades and intangibles (such as clubhouse leadership). The numbers aren’t the whole story, but they can help tell it.
So with spring training only days away, let’s take a look at Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections to see where the Mets’ story starts.
The publication has the Mets projected to win 86 games — one fewer than last season — with 15:2 odds to win the National League pennant. NL East rival Washington is projected to win 85 games and have 5:1 odds to win the pennant.
When does Mets spring training start?
PECOTA Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. From Baseball Prospectus: “PECOTA is BP’s proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons.”
The system is heavily weighted on individual player performance and projections, taking into account career trajectories.
Ultimately, numbers can’t predict the future. They can’t predict whether or not David Wright’s back will hold up or whether or not Matt Harvey will return to his 2013 form. The Mets have one of the deepest rosters in baseball, but it all hinges on health, and particularly the health of the starting rotation.
The club wasn’t especially aggressive in the hot stove scene because they felt they had the right pieces in place and many are nearly rehabbed as spring training begins. They made the one move they had to make in signing outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to a multiyear deal, but there’s no real contingency plan for Wright and the bullpen could still use a quality left-handed setup man.
ESPN’s Jim Bowden gave them a B for their offseason efforts.
Will the Mets really win 86 games? We’ll find out in October.
Abbey Mastracco may be reached at amastracco@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @abbeymastracco. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
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