Mets starters put up a combined ERA of 3.61 last season, which was the third-best in the major leagues. The success of the team hinges on pitching and the Mets believe they have the depth to make up for the loss of Bartolo Colon… But only if everyone stays healthy.
And that’s a big “but” considering how crowded the disabled list was at the end of 2016.
As of right now, the club says the staff is healthy, so here’s a look at how the rotation might look to start the season.
No. 1: RHP Noah Syndergaard
Age on opening day: 24
2016 stat line: 14-9, 2.99 ERA in 31 starts (183.2 innings pitched)
At 6-foot-6, 240 pounds, Syndergaard throws with so much power behind him that the ball reaches the plate at an incredible rate. Even his sliders register in the low-90s, the hardest in baseball, and the team continues to say that they aren’t going to make him hold back on the velocity. If all goes well, Syndergaard could find himself in Cy Young contention this season.
Syndergaard stars in commercial
No. 2: RHP Jacob deGrom
Age on opening day: 28
2016 stat line: 7-8, 3.04 ERA in 24 starts, one complete game (148.0 innings pitched)
deGrom is coming off an offseason surgery to repair the ulnar nerve in his elbow. He recently told the New York Post that he felt better about the outcome of the surgery knowing that hall-of-famer John Smoltz had the same procedure. Fully rehabbed, Matz is already throwing off the mound in Port St. Lucie, Fla., where Mets hold spring training. Another hard thrower with that works off his fastball and slider, the 2014 NL Rookie of the Year throws all four pitches for strikes with good command for a high-velocity pitcher.
No. 3: RHP Matt Harvey
Age on opening day: 28
2016 stat line: 4-10, 4.86 ERA in 17 starts (92.2 innings pitched)
Harvey is still in his final days of rehabbing from a surgery to correct the symptoms of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. A rib was removed in order to restrict the compressing of a nerve that runs from his neck to his shoulder. The procedure has saved some careers — Josh Beckett had the same operation and returned to throw a no-hitter — but it’s far less common than a surgery like Tommy John, so the rehab varies from case-to-case. This is Harvey’s second surgery in four years, so the only way to see if he can return to his 2013 form is to see how he progresses this spring.
No. 4: LHP Steven Matz
Age on opening day: 25
2016 stat line: 9-8, 3.40 ERA in 22 starts (132.1 innings pitched)
Matz had offseason surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow after being shut down late in the season with a shoulder injury. Unlike in seasons past, Matz said he isn’t trying to blow hitters away anymore. He said he learned from former teammate Colon and decided to take a less-is-more approach this season, trying to control his efforts instead of throwing as hard as he can.
No. 5: RHP Zack Wheeler
Age on opening day:
2014 stat line (did not pitch in 2015 or 2016): 11-11, 3.54 ERA in 32 starts, one complete game (185.1 innings pitched)
Wheeler was pegged as the next big arm after his rookie season in 2013. He didn’t disappoint in his sophomore follow-up year. But he then underwent Tommy John surgery in March of 2015 and suffered several setbacks along the way, including a strained flexor tendon in August of 2016 that knocked him out of his only rehab start. When healthy, he throws in the mid-90s with a a good curveball and plus breaking pitches.
The backups: RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Gabriel Ynoa
Gsellman also had an offseason surgery, fixing a torn labrum on his non-pitching shoulder. It was only a problem when swinging a bat. He was recently ranked the 76th-best prospect by ESPN’s Keith Law. He went 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA in eight big league games (seven starts) last season. If he starts in Triple-A, expect him to be the first one called up. … Ynoa was knocked around during his September call-up and will likely start the season in Triple-A Las Vegas.
Missed the other positional projections? Catch up here with catchers and infielders, outfielders and the bullpen.
Abbey Mastracco may be reached at amastracco@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @abbeymastracco. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
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