The Carolina Panthers’ fall from grace has been exacerbated by the presence of their longtime rival in Super Bowl 51.
A year ago the Panthers dabbed their way to the golden edition of the Super Bowl in Santa Clara behind an MVP season from their quarterback, a high-scoring offense and a tough, opportunistic defense.
Even after the 24-10 loss to Denver at Levi’s Stadium, there was heady talk about breaking the jinx of the Super Bowl loser and the team’s championship window.
Then 6-10 happened.
The Panthers’ plunge coincided with a resurgence by the Atlanta Falcons, who rode Matt Ryan’s right arm and Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling to their first winning record and playoff berth since 2012.
The Falcons (13-5) stayed hot in the playoffs, steamrolling Seattle and Green Bay to reach the Super Bowl for the second time in their 51-year history.
I don’t think by any means the world’s coming to an end for the Panthers. I don’t think we’re all of a sudden going to go back to insignificance.
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen
And as Atlanta prepares to square off against New England (16-2) at NRG Stadium on Sunday, it’s fair to question whether the balance of power has shifted 250 miles south for the foreseeable future.
“I don’t think by any means the world’s coming to an end for the Panthers,” Carolina tight end Greg Olsen said. “I don’t think we’re all of a sudden going to go back to insignificance.”
But a lot of experts, such as former NFL coach Dave Wannstedt, look at the Falcons’ youthful roster and see a team that could be good for a while.
“I would absolutely be concerned (as a Panthers fan),” Wannstedt said. “They’re a relatively young team and right now they’re a very confident team.”
The Observer analyzes three reasons the Panthers should be concerned about the Falcons – regardless of how they fare against the Patriots – and three reasons to think the I-85 rivalry is alive and well.
1. Atlanta has speed (and youth) in spades.
There’s a reason the Falcons continue to be compared to the St. Louis Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf” teams: They have skill-position players who can fly, especially on the artificial surface at the Georgia Dome, their new Mercedes-Benz Stadium opening next season and NRG Stadium in Houston.
“Their team is built for a dome,” said Wannstedt, the former Chicago and Miami coach. “They’re a very fast team. They’re kind of a little undersized. Speed is their deal.”
The Falcons didn’t look slow in December on the grass at Bank of America Stadium, where running back Tevin Coleman ran away from Panthers defenders on two big plays in the second half.
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But Wannstedt’s right: Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff has built a team that is fast on both sides of the ball. That speed shows up even more on turf.
Atlanta will play 13 of its 16 regular-season games next season on turf, including all eight in its new $1.5 billion home.
The Falcons also are young: Eight of their defensive starters when they’re in the nickel package are first- or second-year players, a list highlighted by edge rusher Vic Beasley (a league-leading 15.5 sacks in 2016), linebacker Deion Jones and hard-hitting safety Keanu Neal.
2. The Falcons’ key players are locked up.
The Falcons took care of Julio Jones two years ago with a contract extension that runs through 2021. Ryan is signed through 2019, although he could cash in on his MVP season this winter.
The NFL Network reported last month that Atlanta is expected to explore an extension this offseason with its 31-year-old quarterback.
Running back Devonta Freeman’s agent created a stir at the start of Super Bowl week by saying Freeman deserves to be paid like a top-3 back.
It will be interesting to see how the Falcons proceed with Freeman, who has a year left on his contract. It seems unlikely Dimitroff would split up the backfield tandem of Freeman and Coleman, given how well they complement each other.
With the exception of Pro Bowl fullback Patrick DiMarco – who would fit nicely in the Panthers’ scheme – almost all of the Falcons’ key free agents this year are over 30. That group includes tight end Jacob Tamme, kick returner Eric Weems, edge rusher Dwight Freeney and defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux.
3. The Panthers are on the defensive.
Carolina’s three-year run of division titles coincided with a four-year streak of top-10 defenses. That ended this season as the Panthers reloaded at cornerback and got inconsistent play up front.
Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kawann Short took a step back, but played better the second half of the season.
Among the experts in Houston this week, the top two concerns they raised about the Panthers were the protection for Cam Newton and the play of Carolina’s defensive line.
Shannon Sharpe, a Hall of Fame tight end, said he wants to see more consistency from defensive end Kony Ealy, who appeared ready to become an impact player with three sacks and an interception against Peyton Manning in Super Bowl 50.
“He flashed in the Super Bowl big time,” Sharpe said. “It’s time for him to take that next step and to be that guy every game because I know he has that kind of talent. Charles Johnson’s getting a little up in age. He’s not the same Charles, the All-Pro, Pro Bowl-type player. But he’s an adequate guy.”
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While not mentioning Ealy by name, Rivera did not disagree with Sharpe’s assessment when discussing the defensive line with the Observer.
“I think gradually we saw (Short) come back and work his way back into it. I thought Star (Lotulelei) had a solid season,” Rivera said. “But we’ve got to get more productivity out of specific guys that play defensive end for us. Charles Johnson had a great year for us and I’m really pleased with what we got out of Mario (Addison).”
Short and Addison are free agents who are expected to be re-signed, although it might take a franchise tag in Short’s case.
A late surge helped the Panthers finish second in the league in sacks. But the front office has to give first-year coordinator Steve Wilks at least one more edge rusher, which would be particularly helpful when facing Ryan twice a year.
1. Cam Newton should return to form.
The Panthers don’t need an MVP-caliber season from Newton to be successful. But they do need him to improve his throwing mechanics and regain his swagger.
Because of the position he plays and his presence, Newton plays a big part in establishing the tone in the Panthers’ locker room. During the Super Bowl season of 2015, Newton was the smiling, dabbing face of the franchise.
But as the hits (legal or otherwise) and losses stacked up in 2016, football wasn’t fun anymore for Newton, who said near the end of the season he was ready for a sabbatical.
The Panthers can help Newton’s confidence by signing or drafting at least one offensive tackle. Given the uncertainty surrounding Michael Oher and Mike Remmers’ pending free agency, two might be preferable.
“The more the merrier,” Rivera said.
Look, Cam (Newton) is money in the vault. And you need to have really good guards to protect their money in the vault because somebody’s coming to get it.
Fox Sports analyst Shannon Sharpe
Sharpe, the Fox Sports 1 analyst, used a bank analogy to describe Newton’s situation.
“Look, Cam is money in the vault. And you need to have really good guards to protect their money in the vault because somebody’s coming to get it,” Sharpe said. “People are coming to get Cam. He’s taking shots and sometimes Cam has to do a better job of protecting himself. But I’d like to see the NFL do a better job of protecting Cam also.”
The scheme changes the Panthers are making also are being made with Newton’s health and future in mind. Rivera says he wants to see more play-action and rollouts – and fewer zone-read plays – as Newton enters the next stage of his career.
Some observers questioned whether Newton was complacent coming off the Super Bowl and MVP season.
Jake Delhomme, the only other Panthers quarterback to play in a Super Bowl, said last season was a “reality check” for Newton and the entire team.
“You were the hunted. Not only Cam, but the team. They were the team that was dabbing on everyone and going 15-1 and the reigning MVP,” Delhomme said. “Look, (opponents) had that game marked on their calendar. It’s a step back and it’s a reality check for a lot of guys. This is what I’m anxious to see: Who’s going to get better in the offseason?”
For the Panthers to challenge Atlanta (and Tampa Bay), Newton needs to be among them.
2. The Kyle Shanahan effect.
The Falcons offensive coordinator is leaving after the Super Bowl to become San Francisco’s head coach.
Atlanta coach Dan Quinn (wisely) indicated this week that he wants to keep Shanahan’s system in place – a scheme that features zone runs on the edge and precision, timing-based passes.
Chip Kelly has been mentioned as a possible successor to Shanahan, a scenario in which the two would be trading jobs. The Falcons don’t have an obvious in-house candidate, so the interest in Kelly could be legitimate.
Whoever replaces Shanahan will be inheriting an explosive group of skill-position players. But even if that person runs the same system, it doesn’t mean he’ll be as effective calling plays and pushing the right buttons as Shanahan.
“The game is all about finding a mismatch. And I think right now he’s doing it just about as good as anybody else,” said Fox analyst Charles Tillman, a cornerback on the Panthers’ Super Bowl squad.
It took two seasons for Shanahan’s offense to take flight. Delhomme said finding someone to keep it clicking could be difficult.
“It’s something totally different than any team runs. … It’s a hard system to get and Matt struggled last year,” Delhomme said. “Are they going to stick with this family of play-callers with the same verbiage? That’s what I’m anxious to see – who’s going to be that guy? Because there aren’t many of those guys out there.”
3. It’s difficult to recapture the magic.
Success can disrupt the locker room chemistry on some teams. Ask the Panthers.
Some older players (Jared Allen, Tillman) retire after making it to the Super Bowl, and others (Josh Norman) try to parlay their success into big paydays.
One of those potential distractions popped up for the Falcons before they even played the game, with Freeman’s agent saying publicly she expects Freeman to be paid like an elite back.
Others things crop up, too – such as injuries.
The Falcons’ offensive line did not have a starter miss a game all season – a remarkable development that almost certainly will not be repeated in 2017.
Plus, Atlanta will play a first-place schedule, while the Panthers’ last-place slate includes games against Shanahan’s 49ers and the fourth-place Eagles.
The Falcons, as Delhomme put it, now become the hunted.
Linebacker Thomas Davis, the Panthers’ longest-tenured player, doesn’t believe one season makes the Falcons the new top dog in the NFC South. But it hasn’t made their Super Bowl run any easier for the Georgia native and former UGA safety any easier to swallow.
“It’s unfortunate … watching some other teams play in the Super Bowl that we felt like we were going to be a part of. Especially being here watching Atlanta getting ready to play in the Super Bowl,” said Davis, who was in Houston for part of Super Bowl week.
“But we didn’t play well enough to get it done, and we have to be better this year coming up.”
Joseph Person: 704-358-5123, @josephperson
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