The novel coronavirus is economically inflict significantly greater damage than the one in the story as the bird flu received of SARS pathogen from the years 2002 to 2003. Because of the economic historians of the westfälische Wilhelms-Universität (WWU) Münster, Prof. Ulrich Pfister, sure.
reason One: “China has been a much larger weight in the world economy than even 17 years ago,” the Social and economic scientists. In 2002, the people’s Republic, contributed only about six percent of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). In 2019, it was nearly 17 percent, almost three times as much.
According to the OECD, the global growth cut in half
The organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD), the global economy could halve the growth in this year due to the impairments caused by the Corona Virus almost Instead of 2.9, global GDP could grow in the worst case scenario, in 2020 only to be 1.5 percent. That sounds maybe not so tragic, would. but for some people a recession economies mean those economic slump, there are fears in the stock market so much
“in the Meantime, it is clear that China will have in the first quarter, the weakest growth since at least 40 years. Italy, France and Germany are probably already in recession, whether through loss of production and/or Tourism declines, as well as the cancellation of major events and conferences,“ commented then Ulrich Stephan, chief investment strategist for Private and corporate clients at Deutsche Bank. In the US, growth will stagnate at least.
Corona-Virus could not be localized
reason Two: , “in contrast to SARS, it was the Corona Virus is not able to limit the epidemic locally,” explains Pfister. The Figures from the world health organization (WHO) on SARS to prove it. Between November 2002 and July 2003, the WHO 8,096 K registered with bird flu-infected people, of which 7.083 cases in China. A total of 774 people died as a result of the lung disease. (The SARS mortality rate is 9.6 per cent which is significantly higher than that of the Coronavirus.) In Germany, there were just nine Infected, all are healed. At that time, the birds spread the flu almost exclusively in China and Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam, as well as travelers in Canada and the United States. The symptoms were quick and clear to see and the incubation time is shorter, he says Pfister. The new Corona-Virus, also COVID-19, has been proven according to the current state at 2369 people in Germany, five people have died.
In the case of SARS, a mass of chickens culled
If, like us hoarding and the spirit of the games are new, people with mouth protection and quarantines it was in the days of SARS. were At the time, mass-chickens were also culled. “The origin of quarantine in time of plague, when for the first time, whole towns and villages were cordoned off,” explains economic historian Pfister. Widespread infectious diseases were older and in human history is on the rise, since then we have become sedentary, and with livestock to live together.
That SARS and COVID-19 both have their starting point in China, could, however, be a coincidence, but also with the “diversity of animals” to hang in there together. “Sure is, China and the Asian continent are large, the probability for the outbreak of an infectious disease, meaning that there’s just bigger,” says the economist. Pfister considers it possible that the automation is triggered and accelerated by the Corona Virus. Because it enables the globalization of a little to turn back and ran to shorten chains. Larger bearings are not expedient, because they are expensive and a bottleneck could there be nevertheless.
stock market: recovery in sight?
With a consistent monetary and fiscal policy measures there could be, however, on the stock exchange, a significant recovery in the second and third quarter, soothes investment strategist Stephan. The rift between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which sent the price of Oil is also in decline, the European Central Bank (ECB) actually, no choice, Jörg Krämer sure. Thomas Böckelmann, senior portfolio Manager, Euro switch, adds optimistic: “Clearly, lower Oil prices are a huge stimulus package for the world economy. Associated with the expected concerted package of Measures the policy should have a negative impact on the world economy limit. A year and a half of recession does not mean the demise, but in General, the recommencement of economic activity.“ Panic seems so out of place, even if the economic consequences of Corona SARS exceed.
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real-time map shows the Corona-dissemination – more than 45,000 people healed, FOCUS Online/Wochit lung disease Covid-19: real-time map of the Corona-dissemination – more than 45,000 people shows a re-healed
