The German economy is assumed to be at the end of the year 2019, the breath. The gross domestic product stagnated in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, as the Federal Statistical office on the basis of provisional data announced on Friday in Wiesbaden.
for The full year, the gross domestic product increased as a month ago, accepted to 0.6 percent. This was significantly less than in the previous two years. As weak as in 2019, the growth was most recently in 2013.
foreign trade slows economic development as of year-end
the development of the economy was Subdued, according to the year-end foreign trade. Germany exported less than in the third quarter. Private and government consumption expenditure have lost to a very strong third quarter to the end of the year, according to the momentum. The Boom in the construction continued, however.
Europe’s largest economy had fallen after the boom years in 2019, a period of weakness, also due to international trade conflicts and uncertainties in the company. The got, especially the export-oriented German industry to feel. Added to this was the structural change in the auto industry.
desire to buy and building boom have a greater economic slowdown prevents
The purchase desire of the consumer and the construction boom kept the German economy from a full-braking. The private consumption stands for more than 52 percent of economic output. The propensity to consume is likely to remain according to current estimates, the Nuremberg-based GfK experts also 2020.
The Federal government looks at the economy now has a “silver lining on the horizon”, such as Federal Economics Minister, Peter Altmaier (CDU) said recently. “It’s not in small steps, it goes lightning fast, but the road goes upwards.” For the current year, the Federal government expects an economic growth of 1.1 percent for 2021 of 1.3 percent. She is significantly more confident than peak associations such as the industry Association BDI.
effects of the novel Coronavirus is not yet quantifiable
For uncertainty, the spread of the novel Coronavirus caused last. According to the assessment of EU Commissioner for economic Affairs, Paolo Gentiloni, however, it is still too early, the dangers of in China, the outbreak of epidemic for the economy to estimate accurately.
factors of uncertainty, he sees not only the Virus but also in the zig-zag of the U.S. trade policy and in the unsettled relations of the EU to the UK after the end of the year. For Germany, the authorities in Brussels are included in this and in the coming year, each with a 1.1 per cent economic growth, such as of the most recent economic forecast shows.
Economists agree to the German growth data
CARSTEN BRZESKI, chief economist GERMANY economist OF ING BANK
“Generally speaking, the German economy remains between a solid private consumption and a weak manufacturing sector, are stuck. (…) The overall picture of the German economy is clear: Since the summer of 2018, it is de facto stagnating.”
JENS-OLIVER NIKLASCH, ANALYST at LANDESBANK BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG
“The upward revision for the third quarter as only a small consolation. The prospects for 2020 are not good at all. In all of this is amazing, how robust such as the labor market is not yet.”
THOMAS GITZEL, chief economist of VP BANK
“The German economy was to grow in the final quarter of possible to. It can be lucky that this is not a Minus to beech stands. Trade conflicts and the Brexit of the German economy were not good at all.”
BASTIAN HEPPERLE, an ANALYST at Bankhaus LAMPE
“For the German economy the economic situation remains difficult. The end of the year disappointingly weak order situation and the significant decline in production show that the industry recession is persistent. Given the late-cyclical and sustained global demand weakness, the long-awaited turnaround continues to wait.”
JÖRG KRÄMER, chief economist at COMMERZBANK
“Both of the Corona effect and the effect can only be roughly estimated, but all in all, the majority of our growth forecast for the first quarter in the amount of 0.1 percent of the downside risks. This also speaks, that the German industrial production fall up to and including December, so the first quarter begins with a statistical slope. Also, new orders declined in December, significantly. A decline in the gross domestic product in the first quarter is not excluded.”
GREG FUZESI, an ANALYST JPMORGAN
“Overall, the data suggest that the overall economy, despite the continuing weakness of the industry still performed well.”
NILS JANNSEN, GERMANY-EXPERT IFW-KIEL
“stumble The German economy and is in the shadow of the industrial recession. This is mainly due to plummeting equipment investment and a weak business abroad, which is not only a burden on the industry, but also increasingly on the business-related services due to strikes. In view of the very weak December is likely to persist for this period of weakness for the time being figures for new orders and production.”
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dpa
