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How many teachers are going to retire? How many are on leave? How many go in parental leave and how many are returning? How many work part-time or retirement part-time? In his professional life, Bernhard Puell has to deal with many such questions. He must find answers, expressed in resilient numbers.
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For last twelve years, statistician has been calculating expected teachers ‘ needs for Bavarian Ministry of Culture, based mainly on data on population precalculation of National Statistical Office and official school data. “These are records for 1.7 million students,” he says. “They show me how many are in our school system and when y are expected to leave.” Thus, Puell can forecast number of pupils relatively accurately and also required number of teachers ‘ forces.
This works comparatively well: “Bavaria is excellent with its predictions of need for teachers”, says educational researcher Klaus Klemm. However, teachers in Free State also lack in many elementary schools. Statistician Puell illustrates one of causes: “In 2016, we had about 9,000 elementary school students more than we expected in 2014, primarily due to large influx of refugees in 2015. That was something extraordinary. ” Even Bavaria, which adjusted its forecast yearly, could not respond appropriately.
Outdated forecasts in NRW
Or federal states, such as North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), have even more problems. There, statistics are created at larger intervals. The currently available teacher demand forecast dates back to 2011 – high immigration of refugees and increasing birth rates in meantime are not included. The prognosis shows a surplus of teachers, despite fact that elementary school teachers are desperately being searched for. “This is not because of statisticians, but of politics: cabinet would have to give statistical office a mandate for a new forecast,” says Klemm.
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But that lasts. Not only in NRW. And so it is that many ministries of culture are being overtaken by reality: lack of teachers will become even worse in years to come. According to current Bertelsmann study, teachers are urgently sought, whose authors also include Klemm, just under 105,000 teachers have to be readjusted by year 2025 in elementary schools alone.
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According to Bertelsmann study, about 60,000 teachers who leave school service have to be replaced. 26,000 educators would also be required to absorb lessons of increasing student numbers. For expansion of all-day schools, experts expect an additional requirement of 19,000 teachers. In period, however, only 70,000 graduates conclude ir teaching studies, which means that at least 35,000 regular trained teachers will be absent from elementary schools. Only from 2026, according to results of study, will a relaxation be drawn.
Ministries of Education Plan poorly
Those who are now starting a teaching course due to current situation are still poorly advised. The training lasts seven to eight years, including internships. Then demand in labour market can look quite different.
The fact that school policy is often poorly planned also shows a glimpse into past: a teacher’s glut followed again and again on lack of teachers. “In past this was called pig cycle,” says Hamburg educational scientist Peter struck, who sees in strong fluctuations an indication that ministries of education “do not have a plan for a long-term training and recruitment policy”.
