Iran is hard to stop on world stage: nuclear agreements, military victories in Iraq and Syria, a land corridor to Mediterranean Sea – country is gaining power everywhere. The economy is also booming: growth rates are impressive and oil production has doubled since sanctions have been eased.
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But what looks like a success story is a little different. The economic gains are not leaked up to broad strata of population. Although Islamic Republic has one of largest petroleum reserves in world, most Iranians do not work in oil sector. Many are employed in service sector – or not at all. Although government under President Hassan Ruhani, according to his own data, creates 700,000 new jobs every year, unemployment remains high in country. And every year, 1.2 million new workers are pushing market. As with Arab neighbors, re are too many young people in Iran with an average age of 30 years for too few jobs. Every third under 25 years is unemployed, says Iranian Center for Statistics.
A large part of Iranian population lives below poverty line. How many exactly, is hard to say. Parliament’s Committee on Budgets said 2014 that 15 million Iranians were poor, or 20 percent of population. Many of m live in cities. According to Iranian central bank, almost half of all households are affected by poverty. The high number also coincides with assessment of experts. A family of five is refore available on average 500 euros per month, which is hardly enough for bare necessities. By way of comparison: rent of an apartment for five people would be just as high in capital Tehran. With such low salaries, people also get a clear sense when bread becomes more expensive – which occurs over and over again at an inflation rate of eleven percent.
Arm-rich-scissors went under Ruhani apart
Many Iranians had hoped with new president to improve ir living conditions. The Ruhani, acting as a moderate since 2013, had promised to reform economy. Under chaotic economic policy of his konservativenVorgängers Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, this was on ground. But Verbesserungblieb for many people. The economy first experienced an upturn – but only a few at top have benefited from it. A report by IranischenZentrums for statistics reveals that scissors between poor and rich seitruh anise took up even furr apart.
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In contrast to last major protests 2009, it is now more ordinary people who go on streets throughout country, while intellectual elite in Tehran is watching. Unlike green movement, y do not demand freedom of expression or women’s rights, but cheaper food and an end to regime’s self-service mentality. And that state’s money is no longer spent on foreign policy adventures, but on domestic economy.
Security and austerity
An explanation for economic maladministration is reformer’s economic agenda. Ruhani has imposed austerity measures on country instead of implementing much-needed structural reforms. He cut social spending and subsidies for housing, education, food and petrol. His decisions were made by poor rar than economic system that had been sick for 40 years. This is also shown by trend towards poverty: poverty is increasing since Ruhani is in power. At same time, President increased budget for security and defence sector, for military and its costly foreign operations by almost 150 percent. Against se two pillars of Ruhanis politics, security and a radical austerity, wrath of losers is now addressed.
The overall state sector has benefited from growth of national economy. The largest companies in country are firmly in hands of Revolutionary Guards, military, or revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei. The state monopoly power as well as corruption and nepotism prevent any real competition. Thus, elites of regime benefit from a business-friendly policy.
Although moderate reformers around Ruhani as well as Conservative camp are primarily interested in securing power and privileges, y know to use economic misery for ir interests. Thus, Ruhanis adversary Ebrahim Raisei, a conservative Populist, tried to recommend himself to ordinary people before last presidential election 2017. In line with Trump’s America-first campaign, he promised to spend more on lower-income tiers and create up to five million new jobs. Raising strategy seemed to rise: in Mashhad, a center of its supporters, people went first to streets.
