One day before end of delicate period, even experienced observers of US politics riddled wher parties had approached a compromise. In order to get an idea of probability of a government standstill in next 24 hours, one must pay close attention to body language of participants, explained correspondent of transmitter CNBC at White House, Eamon Javers. A few hours later, President Donald Trump and leaders of Democrats and Republicans should sit down to avert government’s impending decommissioning at last moment.
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In late afternoon, both Congresses finally agreed on a short-term spending package that will secure funding of government agencies and programmes at least for next two weeks. But problem is not solved: at latest on 22 December Congress has to agree again on an expenditure package.
If this does not succeed, Washington will once again be threatened with a forced break: hundreds of thousands of state employees would have to stay at home, tax repayments would be delayed and applications for unemployment benefit or support for disabled people would be left; Food programs would be put on hold, investigations by environmental authority postponed and hundreds of public parks closed. Homebuyers would have to wait for mortgages, small and medium-sized businesses that are hoping for granting of loans or orders from government to be disconsoled.
Shutdown costs billions, per week
The economic consequences would be enormous. The rating agency Standard Poor’s estimates cost of a shutdown to at least 6.5 billion dollars per week. The responsible Office of management and Budget calculated that last shutdown 2013 had cost US economy in 16 days even 24 billion dollars and reduced gross domestic product in relevant quarter between 0.2 and 0.4 percent. “A shutdown affects not only Washington, but has an impact on many sectors across country,” experts wrote in August.
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The pressure on Republicans is accordingly great to prevent a shutdown under ir leadership. A failure of negotiations could not only burden economy, but also overshadow still fresh successes in tax reform.
But Conservatives have a problem despite ir majorities in both chambers: in order to approve spending, y need 60 votes in Senate, without Democrats it is not. This gives Liberals plenty of room for manoeuvre. His party would be forced to “basically create a democratic document,” complained to Republican Trent Franks from Arizona this week. The current financial year has been running since 1 October, but until now both parties have failed to agree on a long-term spending decision. While Democrats demand an increase in all budgets, Conservatives and president want to limit mselves to spending on defence and national security.
According to critics, supposed routine procedure has become a political showdown in which both sides try to put ir ideological stamp on budget – and use impending deadlock to push ir own agenda. The parties are increasingly risking emergency. Since 1981, Times has come to a shutdown, which paralysed government once only one or even 21 days. A year ago, a shutdown was only narrowly prevented, when Democrats had insisted, until very last, to make health care of former miners part of law on expenditure, thus bringing sparing conservatives to barricades. Donald Trump himself threatened in summer on Twitter to bring government to a halt if necessary, an expenditure package should not also secure financing of its wall on border with Mexico.
Next deadline before Christmas break
Even now, negotiations are again threatening to become a power struggle for future political course. Over past few weeks, Democrats have repeatedly announced ir agreement to adopt, among or things, a decision to protect millions of illegal immigrants who have come into country as children or teenagers from deportation. The Conservatives, in turn, are considering making a longer-term compromise on end of funding of programmes such as planned Parenthood – a no-go for Liberals.
Already a week ago, president had wanted to meet with two most important Democrats in Congress to negotiate a compromise. However, after Trump had criticized Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer on Twitter, two Democrats had canceled meeting at short notice – and thus increased fear that a deal could not be made in time for deadline. Pelosi and Schumer, president was wetted, would henceforth be held responsible for a possible halt to government.
Even if parties can now agree on a short-term plan: wher y manage to find a longer-term compromise before next deadline, a few days before Christmas break, experts consider it questionable. On Thursday, it was said in US media that parties were already taking up anor short-term solution that would postpone decision to January. Democrat Martin Heinrich, a member of Senate Economic Committee, warned his colleagues that a decision would continue to forth: “If Congress is not even able to keep our government running, how does it intend to take our infrastructure Reform tax system and decide on really important laws? “
