Content
Read on a page
After failure of Jamaica probing, Germany is shattering its head, which is what this riddle may mean for its democracy. Perhaps perspective of a European neighbour will help. The Nerlands is accustomed to such a thing. We have seen everything: from ruling coalitions that are collapsing – previous government was first in 20 years to hold a full term – to promising alliances that failed before y could emerge. After last election, pragmatic Mark Rutte first explored chances of a coalition with Greens. The attempt failed, so he brought two Christian parties aboard. He reigns as prime minister in his third term.
if ( typeof AdController !== ‘undefined’ window.Zeit.isMobileView()) { if ( !document.getElementById( ‘iqadtile3’ ) ) { var elem = document.createElement( ‘div’ ); elem.id = ‘iqadtile3’; elem.className = “ad ad-mobile ad-mobile–3 ad-mobile–3-on-article”; elem.setAttribute(‘data-banner-type’, ‘mobile’); document.getElementById(‘ad-mobile-3’).parentNode.appendChild(elem); AdController.render(‘iqadtile3’); if ( window.console typeof window.console.info === ‘function’ ) { window.console.info(‘AdController ‘ AdController.VERSION ‘ tile 3 mobile’) } } } Casper Thomas
is a political editor of independent Dutch weekly newspaper “De Grande Amsterdam”.
To those in Germany who are worried that country could stay for too long without a new government, I can say: just rest! The Dutch have proven that it is. After last elections, we have broken record for longest phase of government formation in country’s history: 209 days it took. Mark Rutte could have played Vivaldi’s four seasons when he finally presented his team. In deepest winter we had chosen. When we finally had a government, it was already autumn again.
if ( typeof AdController !== ‘undefined’ !window.Zeit.isMobileView()) { if ( !document.getElementById( ‘iqadtile8’ ) ) { var elem = document.createElement( ‘div’ ); elem.id = ‘iqadtile8’; elem.className = “ad ad-desktop ad-desktop–8 ad-desktop–8-on-article”; elem.setAttribute(‘data-banner-type’, ‘desktop’); elem.setAttribute(‘data-banner-label’, ‘Anzeige’); document.getElementById(‘ad-desktop-8’).parentNode.appendChild(elem); AdController.render(‘iqadtile8’); if ( window.console typeof window.console.info === ‘function’ ) { window.console.info(‘AdController ‘ AdController.VERSION ‘ tile 8 desktop’) } } }
But let’s stay humble. When politics is in turmoil in Germany, whole world is looking. Germany and Angela Merkel have high hopes of taking lead with a stable Western democracy, while Britain continues to Brexit chaos and US is governed by an evil witty, unsuccessful president. The Dutch economy grew steadily in months when we had no government (so much so that re were jokes, maybe even better not to have any government at all). The German economy also does not seem to suffer immediately, but question is how markets will react to a continuing political paralysis in Germany, which is ultimately Europe’s economic engine.
Apart from that, Germany should perhaps adjust to fact that this is new normality. How easy it is to form coalitions depends very much on wher elections allow a large party to provide a course to which ors can adapt in exchange for part of power. Two more or less equally big winners, even that can work even if y represent opposite ends of political spectrum. The great coalition of Union and SPD in Germany and previous Dutch government of Social Democrats with Ruttes right-wing Liberal Party are examples of this.
if ( typeof AdController !== ‘undefined’ !window.Zeit.isMobileView()) { if ( !document.getElementById( ‘iqadtile4’ ) ) { var elem = document.createElement( ‘div’ ); elem.id = ‘iqadtile4’; elem.className = “ad ad-desktop ad-desktop–4 ad-desktop–4-on-article”; elem.setAttribute(‘data-banner-type’, ‘desktop’); elem.setAttribute(‘data-banner-label’, ‘Anzeige’); document.getElementById(‘ad-desktop-4’).parentNode.appendChild(elem); AdController.render(‘iqadtile4’); if ( window.console typeof window.console.info === ‘function’ ) { window.console.info(‘AdController ‘ AdController.VERSION ‘ tile 4 desktop’) } } } if ( typeof AdController !== ‘undefined’ window.Zeit.isMobileView()) { if ( !document.getElementById( ‘iqadtile4’ ) ) { var elem = document.createElement( ‘div’ ); elem.id = ‘iqadtile4’; elem.className = “ad ad-mobile ad-mobile–4 ad-mobile–4-on-article”; elem.setAttribute(‘data-banner-type’, ‘mobile’); document.getElementById(‘ad-mobile-4’).parentNode.appendChild(elem); AdController.render(‘iqadtile4’); if ( window.console typeof window.console.info === ‘function’ ) { window.console.info(‘AdController ‘ AdController.VERSION ‘ tile 4 mobile’) } } } Reelections do not solve problem
But as soon as voters send a series of medium-sized parties to Parliament, it gets bumpy. The fact that patience of Dutch were so much tested was due to fact that five parties each received between 10 and 20 seats. Ruttes VVD came to 33 from 150 seats, not exactly a landslide victory. Germany, where CDU also has to accept great losses, follows this trend of political fragmentation. In absence of a clear election winner, ors feel encouraged to cancel coalition negotiations or to deny government involvement around m.
All this is hardly dramatic. Even though process is of course moving in length and becoming more difficult. Indeed, this situation leads to two political spectacles, outcome of which is uncertain: choice and n game after election. Of parties, this calls for two strategies: one to persuade electorate and one to maneuver through imponderable coalition negotiations. If you are overwrought, you might miss chance to sit at table. If you give up too little, you may end up with no allies.
The latter seems to have happened to Mrs Merkel, whom Christian Lindner could not offer enough for him to remain. Or FDP chief was never really interested in an alliance, and his goal was to provoke elections from outset. Those who behave correctly or incorrectly must decide German public, but not necessarily with a new vote. It may be tempting to say that voters now have to decide anew, but question is wher this would solve current problems. An even more fragmented political landscape and an even more arduous path to a new government might as well be result.
