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The Union has agreed that re will be no limit for refugees. It would have been impossible to do so legally. But now agreed guideline is also not unproblematic.
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It is likely to be difficult to find a topic that CDU and CSU have argued in last few years in a similar bitter way to a ceiling for refugees. CSU chief Horst Seehofer wanted her absolutely, guaranteed her in CSU electoral program and made her temporarily dependent on future government involvement of CSU. Angela Merkel, in turn, had also established herself. “There will be no upper limit with me,” she announced again and again.
And now? Is this what both sides have decided after a multi-hour top conversation on Sunday, actually “squaring circle” as Merkel had announced on Saturday on day of Germany of young Union?
The final agreement has not yet been reached, but broad guidelines are emerging: in a future overall package on immigration, aim is to provide for humanitarian immigration, i.e. refugees and asylum seekers, a guideline of 200,000 people per year. So far as Seehofersche share of agreement. Because limiting number of refugees to 200,000 annually is exactly what he had always called for.
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On or hand, re should also be no rejection at border in future. Anyone who requests asylum at German border will continue to receive a proper procedure in future, he says. So no one will be rejected because he is 200,001 in this year. The word upper limit will not be used in agreement. That would correspond to what Merkel always promised.
One can imagine that powerfully battered Horst Seehofer can live very well with this solution. He can now move through country and claim that he had enforced a guideline of 200,000 for reception of refugees. That he has not gotten through word upper limit, he will be able to get hurt. Earlier he had explained how thing is hot, he didn’t care.
But he would have won little in matter. For if no one will be rejected at border in future, it means that in future it will continue to depend on completely different measures than setting of a guideline value, how many refugees actually come to Germany. Of fact that countries on EU’s external border, such as Greece and Italy, are preventing refugees, as happened in 2015, to travel north, for example. Or from fact that re are not so many refugees at all up to Europe. As has been achieved by EU-Turkey pact, and as has now been planned for or refugee groups through partnership agreements with African countries.
These measures have, for example, achieved that already this year number of newly registered refugees in Germany will probably only be at 180,000, and thus under upper limit required by Seehofer. But if, however, once again 500,000 or more people are able to reach German border, Seehofer will not help his guideline unless re is no rejection at border.
