MADRID, 24 Mar. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has warned of the impact of the pension reform on public finances, given the high pressure of the aging of the population, so it will not end the deficit of the system, according to its ‘ Opinion on the sustainability of Public Administrations in the long term: the incidence of demography’.
AIReF estimates that the two legs of the pension reform of the Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, José Luis Escrivá, will mean an increase in the deficit of 1.1 points of GDP in 2050 and 1 point in 2070.
AIReF forecasts are based on a base scenario in which Spain will reach 50.3 million inhabitants in 2050 and 52.1 million in 2070, which will be accompanied by a transformation by age, with the aging of the population cohorts born in the 1960s and mid-1970s, the low fertility rates of recent decades, and the increase in longevity.
Given this scenario, spending on pensions would begin to accelerate, especially from 2035, and would reach its maximum in 2049, with 14.8% of GDP for Social Security system pensions and 16.3% including non-contributory pensions. and passive classes.
Afterwards, spending would fall until reaching 13.4% and 13.9% respectively in 2070, according to AIReF.
