Although the Dax and S&P500 to record just below the record highs, the uncertainty among investors gradually. Reason, the Corona-pandemic in China, which is already worse than the Sars pandemic of 2002 and 2003. Investors fear that the economy is likely to cool growth, China’s significantly stronger than many experts currently predict. It would also strain the US – and the world economy on a massive scale, which is why the fears of a global recession increase sharply. It is when the growth of the world economy goes back to less than two percent.
Recently, interest rates on ten year US are broke, therefore, bonds to 1.57 percent. So you are only around 20 basis points (0.2 percentage points) above the record low set in July 2016. The bond market used to estimate the long-term prospects of the US economy as bad as ever before. DAX 13.588,26 PTS. +94,23 (+0,70%) Xetra
- 1 day
- 6 months
To collapse the rate data
Baltic Dry Index
The concern of the investors in front of a global recession is hardly an indicator better than the Baltic Dry Index. It tracks the freight rates for dry bulk goods such as coal, iron ore and grain on the 25 busiest shipping routes in the world and is thus an excellent Barometer for the development of the world economy.
The Index is on a rapid descent, and most recently plummeted to 415 points. This is the lowest value since March of 2016. Compared to the Multi-year High by the beginning of September, 2019, the Barometer collapsed by more than 80 percent.
If the Chinese economy, especially the industry, is virtually at a standstill, because many of the factories are closed and there is not foreseeable, when you begin the production again, a break of the demand from China, for example, copper inevitably.
With Stock Selection in Europe, you will achieve excess Returns with System! (Partner offer) Now 30 days free of charge test!
According to a report in the Financial Times recently encouraged Chinese copper traders and suppliers from Chile to Nigeria, to reduce their deliveries or to cancel. The slump in the copper price by more than ten percent compared to mid-January speaks volumes.
analysts of the Alliance to lower forecast for growth in the world economy
finally, the analysts, the Alliance warned that the global industry is expected to remain in the first half of the year 2020 in a recession, because by the Corona-pandemic in China, many supply chains are interrupted. On the one hand, there are some sectors, such as textiles or raw materials to the inventories in large warehouses, while demand was weak. On the other hand, the inventories were, for example, in the case of electronics or computers to be abnormally low, what a burden, in turn, the economy. In addition, another load factor. “Secondly, the possible return could amount to a drop in exports of goods and services to China, to 26 billion dollars per week, because production and trade are at a standstill,” wrote the analysts of the Alliance.
The largest market in the world trading. Expert tips for your Forex Trading (partner offer) To the free expert tips on
Therefore, they have evaporated their forecast for world trade growth for the current year by 0.5 percentage points to 1.3 percent in. The was even slightly under the 2019-value of 1.4 percent, according to the world Bank, the lowest since the 2008/09er-debt crisis in the United States.
in Addition, the analysts of the Alliance have reduced their estimate for the growth of the world economy by 0.1 percentage point to 2.3 percent – and the beginning of February. Every week, in the factories in China are at a standstill, and a global recession more likely.
Germany’s industry is slipping deeper into recession
A weak world economy, heavily export-dependent economies, such as Germany particularly strong. The local industry is broken into production in December by 3.5 percent compared to the previous month, while economists have said a decline of only 0.2 percent. That was the biggest decline since the 2009 crisis. Thus, the production is austere 6.8 percent below the previous year’s level – that was of course before the announcement of the Corona pandemic.
to see, Contrary to the assertions of numerous experts repeatedly had stoked hopes of a revival in the sector is expected to continue to be absolutely nothing – quite the contrary. In December, the new orders for industry were down by 8.7 percent compared to the previous year. This is the biggest collapse since 2009.
Gold, commodities, currencies – the market analysis of the COT Report gives the correct view. (Partner offer) Now 30 days free of charge analysis to read!
in addition to the weakness of the global economy, the local industry also gets the change to electric mobility, and companies such as Daimler, BMW and Volkswagen, are facing big challenges. The deeper the industry, especially mechanical engineering, from slipping into a recession, the more the sucking, but to the service sector.
Therefore, could be cooking in the next few months, fears of a recession in the entire German economy rapidly high. A more accurate view of investors on the coming Friday, 14. In February, the data to examine economic growth in the fourth quarter. Economists say a minimal growth of 0.1 percent compared to the previous quarter, in advance.
The more it comes in the next few weeks and months on the global Central banks. Should, in spite of the huge liquidity the Fed and the Chinese Central Bank is flooding the interest rates on ten-year US bond quickly in the direction of the record lows rotate in a downwards direction, and thus the Concerns of investors against a possible US recession return, it could take almost eleven-year-long stock market party when the Dax and S&P500 to an abrupt end.
As commented on the FOCUS Online readers of the post:
“The way of Germany in the crisis is predetermined and inevitable. With our industry’s hostile policy, we will be to blame for our deep down self. The much-maligned United States is experiencing a significant upswing and recorded the lowest unemployment rate for over 55 years.The other EU States, with the exception of Italy, we lost them in the meantime. Everything is eliminated from mostly ideological reasons, or more difficult, to grasp our foreign competitors to be grateful and revive their economy. On our world suggestions for improvement no one is really waiting for, hopefully we will see this before it is too late. Maybe rising job losses and the approaching let the collapse of our welfare systems, voters are again more realistic.”
“‘The Euro is holding at least 400 years and the pension is safe’, say, Theo Waigel, and Norbert Blüm. And others say: ‘The Euro is not only currency, there is a nice weather, as well as the pension will fall over at the first real storm.’ Who is right, we learn already very soon.” Union in crisis: Özdemir talks, the CDU-man in the TV with a flaming appeal to the Conscience of FOCUS Online/Wochit Union in the crisis: Özdemir talks, the CDU-man in the TV with a flaming appeal to the Conscience of the storm “Sabine” makes for Winter-interlude: Lake effect brings 20 inches of new snow FOCUS Online/Wochit storm “Sabine” makes for Winter-interlude: Lake effect brings 20 inches of new snow
