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Prime Minister Theresa May would like to keep this opinion under wraps: The tighter Britain remains connected to EU, better for British economy, a report which appears to be close to that of Olly Robbins, Brexit chief Imamt of Prime Minister, toger with Brexit Ministry and Ministry of Finance.
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The release should weaken Brexit hardliners in Conservative Party, who repeatedly attack head of government. But opposite is case: publication shows once again how torn British Conservatives stand re and what wing fights may have to withstand. Last week, Brexit minister David Davies denied a parliamentary exclusion that esüberhaupt a detailed analysis of impact of Brexits on British government. But previously secret opinion shows exactly that: Government has yes in detail consequences of different Brexit variants on national economy.
The result: SollteGroßbritannien without agreement with EU from internal market and Customs Union (no Deal), country’s economic growth in 15 years will be less than current forecast. This explains why government barely talks about a “no Deal”. The closer UK is to EU, better for economy: in case of a free trade agreement, economy will grow only five percent less. If London even chooses Norway model and Engan EU internal market, Britain would only lose two percent of its growth. Especially explosive for camp of Brexit proponents: even new free trade agreements, which Britain could later deal with third countries – for example with US – do not nearly compensate for würdendie growth losses outside EU.
So motto for DenVerhandlungen would have to be for United Kingdom: Damage limitation, Alsoweicher Brexit. But if may admit this publicly, it risks supporting hardliners of ir party and in Parliament. This can not consult battered head of government, who knows only a narrow majority of Hintersich. As sharp as harsh Brexit proponents reacted, Chancellor David Hammond experienced last week after he had been in Davosgesagt, Britain would deviate “only marginal” from previous one. The hardliners immediately called for his dismissal.
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Mays EinzigeChance is to deceive as long as possible to both sides, Brexit proponents and proponents of a softer Brexit, that allesjeweils is in ir sense. This also explains its new dispute with Brussels about rights of EU citizens who come to Britain after transitional period VonApril 2019. According to British Regierungkein, y are to be entitled to permanent residence permits.
The ambivalence of head of government irritates Brussels. The EU insists that Mayendlich put ir cards on table so that concrete Verhandlungenüber can continue after transition period. This is expected to begin on formal EU exit in March 2019 and take about two to three years. This is necessary so that all parties can prepare for new conditions.
During this time of preparation, everything continues as before, EU and United Kingdom have proposed. This means that even if United Kingdom leaves EU, internal market and Customs Union under international law, nothing will change in daily business. Britain continues to accept free access of EU workers, pays in EU budget and banks retain access to internal market. In short, nothing changes for economy.
Neverless, UK’s legal withdrawal from EU to March 2019 is necessary. Only n can country, as a third country, not as a member of EU, negotiate and sign a new agreement with EU. The United Kingdom must also formally leave customs union of Europeans in order to be able to agree free trade agreements with or countries. At same time, United Kingdom and EU must ask all 70 third countries with which Europeans have concluded free trade agreements to treat kingdom as if it were part of EU during transitional period.
The British Minister for exit of EU, David Davies, wants, like head of government may, that his country is no longer a member of customs union after formal withdrawal, for example to negotiate a free trade agreement with United States. However, at same time, British government wants to conclude with EU “a kind of customs agreement” – which largely leaves everything to old. For example, customs duties should not exist on both sides, but declarations of origin should be possible.
