In conflict over future of Catalonia region, even among economists, a kind of propaganda war has long been used. The question is wher a republic of Catalonia could survive economically after secession of Kingdom of Spain, as leadership in Barcelona aspires. The answers range from blackest scenarios with mass unemployment to image of a coveted location for international investors who play economically in same league as Nerlands or Sweden.
There are only two points of agreement among experts: Spain could not afford separation of industrial and tourist region in economic terms. And a general strike in Catalonia, as it looms in face of presently hopeless confrontation, would also make whole of Spain sensitive; He could cross entire rehabilitation program of Conservative government under Mariano Rajoy and lead to a renewed recession. In or words, hard line Rajoy, which rejects negotiations on main dispute, namely immature financial balance between regions, poses great risks to country.
Why an independent Catalonia would not be in EU The EU is trying in vain to keep out of dispute. The fact that a Catalan state would be an EU member is considered to be excluded. And this is not just about Spain. By Daniel Brössler more… Catalonia is a leader in car production and pharmaceutical
The 7.5 million inhabitants of Catalonia make up about one-sixth of population of Spain, but y generate one fifth of gross domestic product. Almost a quarter of industrial production comes from re. But se figures only imperfectly reflect importance for entire Spanish economy: In region of Costa Brava and Costa Dorada, high technology companies are based, which are also competitive in world markets, while Industrial production from or regions, from Madrid and Basque Country, is mainly intended for internal market. Especially in two areas, Catalonia is very far ahead: in automotive production and production of high-quality pharmaceutical products. In addition, Barcelona metropolitan area is focused on IT companies that are capable of innovation.
This is consequence of a forward-looking economic development policy, on or hand, it is Catalans mselves who also express ir mentality: y are considered effective organizers and patient tinkerers, and y are proud of ir thrift. They are swabians of Spain- Spaniards from or regions resent proverbial Catalan avarice or make jokes about it.
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One of basic motives of present conflict is also that in Barcelona government in Madrid accuses an equally intransparent and wasteful way of dealing with money; The Catalans believe that y alone will manage ir region better and also keep m competitive. The course of major crisis in Spain, which erupted ten years ago, which is result of a grossly negligent financial and economic policy of central governments in Madrid, also provides many arguments for this.
The fact that Catalonia, as a new EU state, would easily survive economically, does not even doubt experts of Ministry of Finance in Madrid. The big question is wher region can remain in EU and retain euro after a secession, for which, however, political opportunities are currently low. Clearly, case is by no means regulated. However, given weak political argument of advocates of independence- referendum on Sunday did not provide evidence that majority of Catalans were behind m-because of low turnout, this seems to be impossible.
