The fate of the Euro depends not solely, but to a very significant part of the willingness of the Germans, your wallet open. At the “German Nibelungen faithfulness” to the Euro on the financial markets so far, never a doubt. All German governments in Berlin have always supported everything, everything is waved on through what was necessary to defend the Euro. No invoice for the German tax payer was the government, politicians, big – whether it is lending to Greece, “European stability mechanism”, the Zero and negative interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), expansion of the money supply à la bond purchases by the ECB, banking Union, etc., Because the German de facto had their financial capacity of the Euro-community invited were all of the previous problems – above all the banking and sovereign debt crisis – will be collected. The Person
Dr. Thorsten Polleit, chief economist Degussa and honorary Professor of Economics at the University of Bayreuth.
The German coverage the system is crumbling more and more – and is risk for the Euro.
But now the political situation in the economically most important country of the Euro seems to be changing period. As in other countries of Europe, the German “old parties, the system is” out of joint now. Increasingly, a split in the so far, yet so harmonious Federal Republic of Germany comes to the fore. This is not simply a division between “middle”, “left” and “Right”, not a division between “democratic” and “undemocratic”, as it is medially conveyed. Rather, a revolt against the “Establishment” came, against the “ruling Elite” in gear. A still relatively small but growing number of human rebels against the economic and political grievances, the cause of which they situate the “political leaders”. In the core it is a conflict between net State profiteers, and net-to-state losers who comes to the outbreak. Also in Germany, a wave to it, which has broken down in the United States of America and the United Kingdom, a lot of things and washed away. US Dollar / Euro (USD/EUR) 0,9217 EUR -0,0007 (-0,08%) OTC
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But perhaps the situation calms down, Yes again. If, for example, the German Chancellor, enough of their Power to a successor, and he then manages to form a new, broad coalition government. However, this is not very likely. Because if it is, in fact, a split between net State profiteers, and net-to-state losers should act, as above assumed, will be far more than just a new majority to negotiate under the old parties to arrive.
“More so” in the case of the Euro rescue is not
work As always, but the conflict in Germany also like to go out: The financial markets can no longer give blind to the absolute delight of the German left. No matter who is on the government Bank in Berlin. A “More so” in the Euro-rescue will not work in the long term. No government in Berlin will dare to pull the “plug” and to withdraw from the Euro, any financial support from the German taxpayers and savers with a Bang. But – and this is for the financial markets, the Ultimate – absolute more zahlerei the German to the Rest of the Euro community, but less likely. And in order for the risk assessment of investment changes within the Euro area; and there is also the risk position of the Euro area within the international monetary system changes.
What consequences this will have? The ECB will play a “fire brigade” and more than ever in the Euro financial markets to intervene: for example, If investors from bonds pull back, will buy more bonds to keep interest rates low; or if investors Euro-banks want to lend any more money, will step in for the ECB. It all boils down to the fact that the ECB is kidney the money supply and thus the prices of goods more and more price inflation. Because one thing should be clear: credit losses of Euro States and banks in the large styles can’t cope with the Euro-System – they could make the Euro away. But because the governing councils have no interest in. A price inflation, ned Euro is probably still better than a Euro that dissolves by the banking and state bankruptcies in the air, for price deflation, and as a result, the Euro monetary Union breaks.
The Euro is losing its basis of business
An unpopular truth comes to light: The business basis of the Euro fades. Something like the “United States of Europe” will not be for the foreseeable future. Good. The future of Europe lies not in the realization of the Central state idea, but in the Dismantling of a free-trade zone of sovereign States. The open certainly is the possibility that all people want to do business in Europe with a single currency. But the ECB and its Euro is misplaced: Both of them are politicized, supra-national creatures. They are not the result of economic reason but a political ideology. In a Europe of free trade, the Euro is in its current Form as the unsecured paper money issued by a Central Bank, a foreign body, probably not a permanent illuminated will be.
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