It’s still about 38 hours from the first snowflake — and the forecasts are certainly not certain — but let’s ask the question everyone’s asking anyway: How much is it going to snow on Thursday morning?
National Weather Service: 2 to 6 inches
WeatherWorks: 2 to 4 inches — or more, with current models showing the storm strengthening, meteorologist Joe Martucci said. “We are keeping an eye out for higher totals, especially if the storm wraps itself up better,” he added.
Eastern PA Weather Authority: 3 to 8 inches. An improvement from a 1- to 12-inch range on Monday. But meteorologist Bobby Martrich says he will know more when the latest model runs end early Tuesday afternoon. At the moment, 3 to 6 inches or 4 to 8 inches “is a good middle ground.”
Martucci said the rain-snow line should set up, as is “typical,” along the Interstate 95 corridor. The storm is coming from the mid-South and Midwest. It will head off the Virginia or North Carolina coast and take on attributes of a nor’easter, he added.
“We’re expecting a 6- to 10-hour window of winter weather,” he said of the quick storm. “… It’s a Clipper that’s turning coastal.”
EARLIER: Midweek weather gives forecasters fits
A mix of rain, sleet and snow just after midnight is supposed to “quickly change over to (all) snow,” he said. It will be light at first, then “moderate” during the morning commute, he added.
But conditions Tuesday and Wednesday could play a part in how much sticks. A cold front will come through overnight Tuesday, dropping the temperature from the 50s into the 30s as Wednesday unfurls, he said.
“We won’t hit freezing until 2 or 3 hours into the event,” Martucci said.
While the falling snow will bring colder temperatures with it from the upper atmosphere, the ground could still be warm from the unseasonable weather that is preceding the storm, he explained.
The whole thing could be over by 9 a.m., but it will certainly be gone before noon, he said. Some sun will get through during the afternoon although a chance of snow showers will remain, he said.
Friday will continue cold with the possibility of rain or snow going into Saturday, he said. But then, Saturday could reach 50 degrees and the snow could quickly become a memory.
It’s similar to much of the winter so far.
“It’s like a roller coaster,” he said. “We do get cold shots but they don’t hang around a lot.”
Martrich is figuring on a heavy, wet snow with higher accumulations from Allentown north into the Poconos. The storm will be “a little bit juiced” with energy, he added.
The future Valley weather has entered land from the Pacific, making it easier to read, he said.
“I want to make sure everything holds up today” before releasing a snow accumulation map on Tuesday night, Martrich said. “Everything is on land now where it can be sampled.
“… Today should lock it up.”
Tony Rhodin may be reached at arhodin@lehighvalleylive.com. Follow him on Twitter @TonyRhodin. Find lehighvalleylive.com on Facebook.
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