Bears Q&A: Trading down, Jonathan Allen’s pains, Jimmy Garoppolo’s potential and more

The Tribune’s Brad Biggs answers your Bears questions weekly.

Other than quarterback, what is the hardest position for scouts to judge and draft successfully? — @BradleyKopec

None of the positions are considered easy to scout. If you look at the history of the first round, I think it’s fair to say about half of the picks really pan out and the stats for fifth-year options exercised by clubs on first-round picks in the current collective bargaining agreement will show that. There used to be thinking that wide receiver was a position with a high bust rate, at least in the first round, but if you take a look at it teams can miss at all positions. There is no question that quarterback is the most difficult position for general managers, coaches, scouts and everyone else to evaluate. The next most difficult position to evaluate might be cornerback. That’s at least the opinion of two scouts I bounced this question off of during Senior Bowl week. Of course, a scout with a background as a defensive back might pick a different position. Why are cornerbacks difficult to evaluate? For starters, it’s not all measurables like 40 time, height, arm length and such. There are a lot of factors to weigh and some of the really good cornerbacks are not the most physically imposing at the position.

“I’d say safety too because of the college landscape and so many spread teams, so many underneath option routes and so many teams play a lot of zone and because of that the defenses are playing softer shells,” a scout said. “It’s hard to see if they know how to play press, can they play off, can they play everything they will be asked to do at the pro level. They don’t get enough examples in college for scouts to see.

“There are so many RPO’s (run/pass options) now too. They’ve screwed up scouting because it’s so hard for defensive backs to decide if it’s run or pass and they have sloppy footwork because of that. Can they move inside?”

The Bears are certainly in need of an upgrade at the position and hopefully they hit in the draft this year.

In preparing for Super Bowl 51 on Feb. 5, we’ve done our homework, ranking all 50 previous Super Bowls on how enjoyable they were to watch. Arriving at these conclusions was actually pretty simple. Ask yourself a few questions: Was there exciting drama? A legendary performance? A moment that we still can’t forget? Or were they just all hype and no substance?

Here’s our complete list.

— Jeremy Gottlieb, Washington Post

What kind of odds do you put on the Bears finding their Derek Carr with the 36th pick? — @PorkSoldier

Not real good. How many Carrs have you seen selected in the second round in the last decade? Yes, there are some other good examples in the last 10 years with quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton coming outside of Round 1. But check out how many quarterbacks were drafted in all seven rounds that did not pan out. The Cadillac plan for the Bears has to be to find an impact player in Round 1 and then grab a quarterback in Round 2 that can turn into a franchise player. That’s precisely what the Raiders did when they selected pass rusher Khalil Mack in the first round and came back with Carr in Round 2. If only it were that simple. The craziest part of that? The Jaguars selected Blake Bortles No. 3 overall and they coached in the Senior Bowl in 2014 with Carr on their roster. If the Bears don’t trade for a veteran quarterback and don’t draft one in the first round, you can bet they will be considering a variety of passers in Round 2 with the hope that guy turns into the next Carr. There’s a heck of a lot of projection that will go into that.

Will Jonathan Allen’s chronic shoulder pains be an issue? — @Johnny_O_Graddy

There are some questions for Allen regarding his shoulder. He has reportedly had two shoulder surgeries and that is the kind of thing the Bears — and every other NFL team — will take a close look at when he arrives at the scouting combine. The medical testing that is done in Indianapolis is arguably the most important process of the entire week and that will allow teams to make determinations about his physical condition in projecting him as an NFL player. To speculate on what those teams will find at this point, I have no idea. Keep in mind one team’s medical analysis may vary considerably from another team’s in the process. He’s considered an elite prospect at this point but does that mean he goes top three or goes somewhere in Round 1? Who knows.

CFP National Championship Ronald Martinez / Getty Images

Alabama defensive lineman Jonathan Allen before the national title game vs. Clemson on Jan. 9, 2017.

(Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)

Do you think that the Bears could get a king’s ransom for their No. 3 pick and trade down? — @BradyBeedon

The only way the Bears turn the No. 3 pick into a king’s ransom is if a team is looking to make a move up for a quarterback and history tells us that really a king’s ransom is probably only going to come in return for the first or second picks. If a quarterback is sitting there at No. 3 and the Bears are not interested in that player, perhaps they could get a quality return in picks for the selection. But the fact that everyone overlooks when they throw out the idea of trading down in the draft is that there has to be a team and usually there has to be two teams in a bidding war of sorts to generate a massive return. The Bears desperately wanted to trade out of the No. 4 pick in 2005. They didn’t see a player they were crazy over with that pick. Guess what? No one else saw a player they were crazy over at that point in the draft either and they wound up with running back Cedric Benson. General manager Ryan Pace will surely listen to any and all inquiries but it’s never easy to flip a first-round pick for an absolute bounty of draft picks.

You doubt a team will trade for Jay Cutler because his W-L record, but he was 35-23 under Lovie Smith. Aren’t you overlooking recent team ills? — @AldoBarkeeper

You could make that case but I am pretty certain teams out there in search of a quarterback aren’t going to say, “Let’s fire up the tape of Cutler in 2012 and 2011 and before that and see what kind of player he is.” Cutler has played with some fine offensive skill talent over the last four seasons and not led the Bears to winning ways. His durability is at least a question at this point as he has missed 18 games over the last four seasons and he’s coming off surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right throwing shoulder. Cutler will turn 34 in April. Those factors would all be in play for a team considering a trade. Then, consider also that if teams around the league believe that the Bears are likely to release Cutler, why would one step up and offer draft capital in exchange for him if he could be signed as a street free agent? Put it all together and I think it will be challenging to trade Cutler. I’m not saying it will be impossible but I would not expect a whole lot in return. Any team considering Cutler would likely be more interested in exploring a younger option that could be developed into a franchise player first, right?

Photos of Bears quarterback Jay Cutler.

Now that former Bears scout Chris Balllard has been hired as GM in Indianapolis, do you anticipate any current Bears scouts being hired away? Are there any scouts left from Ballard’s time here? I know the official hiring cycle for scouts is after the draft but do most scouts have these conversations about their future at the Senior Bowl? — David G., Parts Unknown, from email

That’s a good question and I can tell you that there are plenty of scouts remaining in the Bears organization that were employed while Ballard worked atHalas Hall. Many of them have since been promoted by general manager Ryan Pace. Ballard isn’t going to be able to pluck any scouts from the Bears unless they are coming out of contract. He is well-connected around the league and will probably have to wait for scouts he doesn’t want to keep in Indianapolis to come out of contract in order to replace them. I don’t expect a mass exodus of scouts leaving to work for the Colts.

Do you think the Bears might double down on tight ends in the draft? The talent seems unbelievable and Zach Miller is absolutely undependable. How about drafting tight ends in the second and fifth rounds? — @unnightclub

You’re right that this is sizing up to be one of the better drafts for tight ends in some time. But with a host of needs across the roster, I doubt the Bears will double down at tight end. Certainly it would be a good idea to get one at some point and Miller’s durability issues continue to make him a considerable question mark for the team. Miller is an offensive weapon when available but he’s struggled mightily to play a full season. Let’s not forget that Daniel Brown made a nice little impact with the opportunities he had late in the season and I’d like to see what he can do with a full offseason on the roster. He could be a player that steps into a more significant role in 2017. Ben Braunecker will have a chance to develop as well. But drafting a tight end would be a very good idea to solidify a position that was in flux the last year. As I detailed near the end of the season, when the Bears signed MyCole Pruitt off the practice squad of the Vikings in December, he came the 15th tight end on the roster (90-man, 53-man or practice squad) since the end of the 2015 season. The Bears have really worked over the roster at that position and finding a quality player in the draft could ease concerns at the position, especially if Brown pans out. I think it would be a good idea to consider re-signing veteran Logan Paulsen as well because the staff felt he did a really good job working with younger players and he fit what the Bears wanted to do in the running game. The 15 tight ends: Busta Anderson, Ben Braunecker, Brown, Rob Housler, Marcel Jensen, Khari Lee, Marcus Lucas, Miller, Tony Moeaki, Paulsen, Justin Perillo, Pruitt, Greg Scruggs, Gannon Sinclair and Joe Sommers. Keep in mind the Bears also signed Josh Hill to an offer sheet as a restricted free agent in March. The Saints matched the contract but technically that’s a 16th transaction at the tight end position.

I know we all think we’re GMs at home and that this job is so easy but I have a QB I’m interested in: A.J. McCarron. I have done some research and he’s thrown for 9,000 yards 77 TDs 15 INTs in the four years at Alabama. It also helps a little to have Julio Jones for a while. He was asked what his best attribute was and he replied "winning." But I have read that John Fox and Ryan Pace are looking for players who have won in the past and he definitely fits that bill. Where would he rank if he came out this year? And would a fourth be too low for him as compensation? — Anthony C., Parts Unknown

I have gotten multiple McCarron questions over the last couple months and the first thing you need to know is the Bengals were opposed to trading him before this last season. He has been decent in limited playing time in Cincinnati and the club may take a different approach this offseason as he is entering the final year of his deal. The Bengals will have to trade him or wait to see what kind of compensatory draft pick it can potentially receive in 2019 if he leaves as a free agent following the 2017 season. I think he would be in the second tier of quarterbacks in this draft if he was coming out now. You can’t look at what he’s done in the NFL and say, “Oh sure, he should suddenly be moved up.” I would imagine the Bengals would seek more than a fourth-round pick for McCarron if they look to move him. Browns coach Hue Jackson worked with McCarron in Cincinnati and it will be interesting to see if Cleveland expresses interest for a possible in-division deal. Sometimes those are hard to pull off but Jackson knows McCarron better than most.

A.J. McCarron Joe Robbins / Getty Images

A.J. McCarron works out during the 2014 scouting combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on Feb. 23, 2014.

(Joe Robbins / Getty Images)

Do you think the Bears will fall in love with Desmond King? I do, if they aren’t already. — Patrick B., Parts Unknown

King was a very productive player at Iowa and had a solid week at the Senior Bowl. He’s got a really thick lower body and there are some real questions about his speed and ability to run. That led one national scout to tell me he believes King will project as a slot cornerback in the NFL. Others view him as a better fit as a safety. We’ll see what plays out. King is a nice prospect but I kind of doubt he’s in the first round.

Tom Brady is close to retirement and if the Patriots get rid of Jimmy Garoppolo, doesn’t that throw up a red flag? — @OriginalMEGAS

You really think Brady is “close” to retirement. He turns 40 in August but showed positively no signs of slowing down this week and has expressed a desire and commitment to play for many more seasons. Garoppolo is entering the final year of his rookie contract and will be an unrestricted free agent following the 2017 season. So, the Patriots can look to trade Garoppolo now and get draft pick(s) in the 2017 draft or they can keep Garoppolo and wait to see what kind of compensatory draft pick (likely a thrid rounder) they would get in the 2019 draft. What do you think makes more sense? Better compensation in the 2017 draft or worse compensation in the 2019 draft. That is why I believe New England is likely to consider a trade this offseason. I don’t know that constitutes a red flag either.

A lot of people say the Bears are a couple years away. Jimmy Garoppolo is a free agent next year. What’s the hurry? Make New England richer? — @chibob57

I think it’s fair to say the Bears are more than a year away but are you suggesting that is a reason to once again push off and delay the search for a quarterback? That’s one of the reasons, probably the primary reason the Bears are in the position they find themselves in today. Garoppolo is scheduled to be a free agent after next season but if he’s traded, I would imagine the team acquiring him will work to sign him to a multi-year extension. It’s now about making New England richer. It’s about the Bears attempting – beginning to attempt to solve a serious roster flaw.

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