Bears general manager Ryan Pace knows full well the chores that await him and how lengthy his wish list has become. The NFL offseason is about to intensify. The scouting combine is less than two weeks away. Free agency opens right behind that. And the draft will follow in April. All of those events will offer the Bears opportunities to make their personnel visions reality and upgrade a roster in need of more talent and quality depth.
Yet for Pace no box is bigger in his 2017 roster overhaul efforts than the one at the top of the checklist, a demand that has to be written in 72-point bold font, then underlined for emphasis: Find. A. Quarterback!
This is the mission that will define the Bears in 2017, an undertaking Pace feels prepared to attack. The eager GM celebrated his 40th birthday Friday and likely didn’t need long think of a wish when he blew out his candles.
Pace acknowledged at his season-ending news conference last month that he planned to explore every avenue to solidify the most important position on the Bears roster, declaring with conviction that "everything’s on the table."
"I understand the importance of that position, the magnitude of that position," Pace added. "That’s a critical, critical decision for me and this whole building."
So what now? Pace sits in the opening chapter of a "Choose Your Own Adventure," eyeing several possible paths to complete his quarterback quest. Ultimately, Pace’s decision will require conviction and a leap of faith.
Here’s a snapshot look at the Bears’ four most likely routes and the uncertainties that exist down each.
Trade Jimmy Garoppolo Tom Pennington / Getty Images
Jimmy Garoppolo holds the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the Falcons 34-28 in overtime during Super Bowl 51.
Jimmy Garoppolo holds the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the Falcons 34-28 in overtime during Super Bowl 51.
(Tom Pennington / Getty Images)
Quarterbacks in play: Jimmy Garoppolo, AJ McCarron, Tony Romo.
The skinny: Garoppolo has become the most hyped quarterback of this offseason, a 25-year-old triggerman who has spent the last three years learning his craft behind Tom Brady in New England. The Arlington Heights native and former Rolling Meadows star was a second-round pick in 2014 and draws raves for his intelligence, quick release and confidence.
Garoppolo’s common ground with Pace — both went to Eastern Illinois — is far less important than the quarterback’s accuracy and poise.
Still, to accelerate any push to land Garoppolo, the Bears would have to obtain suitable answers to two daunting questions. First and foremost, with one year left on Garoppolo’s rookie deal with the Patriots, what would Pace have to surrender in a trade for the young quarterback? Beyond that, if the Bears were able to pull off such a deal, what price will they have to pay to extend Garoppolo’s contract?
There’s little chance the Bears would trade for Garoppolo without being all in, without knowing for certain they could quickly finalize an extension. That could get dicey if Garoppolo is seeking a deal similar to the one Brock Osweiler signed with the Texans last spring (four years, $72 million, $37 million guaranteed).
Furthermore, with so many needs across the roster, Pace is not playing from a position of strength in the trade market. The Bears have seven picks for this spring’s draft and will have to be careful about parting with too much draft currency.
Also, chew on this for a second: McCarron actually has comparable NFL experience. Including the postseason, he has made twice as many starts as Garoppolo (four to two) and had enough success to be worth at least a look.
Still, the consensus in league circles is that Garoppolo has a higher ceiling and legitimate potential to become a 10-year starter if he lands in the right situation.
Pick No. 3 The deadline to declare for the draft has passed. The Senior Bowl is in the books. The NFL scouting combine is a scant three weeks away. Draft season is fully engaged and the many prospects are already well along the proverbial road to the podium.
Which players will get that invite to the 2017 NFL draft in Philadelphia? Plenty of those among my Top 50 will get that coveted invitation to Philadelphia, so let’s take a look at my Big Board heading into the combine at the end of the month.
— John Harris, Special To The Washington Post
Quarterbacks in play: Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer.
The skinny: Between comments made at his season-ending news conference and subsequent thoughts shared at the Senior Bowl, Pace wants his next quarterback to be consistent, productive and inherently driven. The Bears GM is seeking a natural leader who understands ball security. Pace also emphasized the value of extensive college experience.
"You want to look for a player who has lifted his program for the most part," Pace said. "Drew Brees for example, when he was at Purdue, he lifted that program. That’s one of the things we look for. That’s definitely a factor."
Through that prism, Watson fits the profile much better than Trubisky or Kizer. Trubisky’s accuracy is a plus. But with only 13 career starts at North Carolina, his growth curve might be steeper early in his NFL career.
Kizer, meanwhile, has been knocked in some league circles as a questionable decision-maker who comes across as complacent and aloof, qualities that should scare the heck out of any GM looking to marry his future to the Notre Dame quarterback.
As for Watson? His individual success (twice a Heisman Trophy finalist) and his ability to elevate the Clemson program (28 victories his last two years as a starter, two trips to the national title game, one championship-winning fourth-quarter drive) are testaments to his passion and leadership. Those are intangibles that lessen concerns over his accuracy and turnover problems.
Still, it’s debatable whether Watson would be worthy of a top-three pick. But if the Bears fall deeply in love with his skill set and charisma and No. 3 is the only spot they would be certain to land him, then any extreme worry over making a reach pick would be misguided.
Day 2 of the draft Patrick Mahomes Ron Jenkins / AP
Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes looks to throw against Baylor during the first half on Nov. 25, 2016.
Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes looks to throw against Baylor during the first half on Nov. 25, 2016.
(Ron Jenkins / AP)
Quarterbacks in play: Brad Kaaya, Patrick Mahomes, Nathan Peterman, Davis Webb.
The skinny: Of the 47 NFL quarterbacks who made multiple starts during the 2016 season, 10 were drafted in either the second or third round. That list: Brees, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Garoppolo, Osweiler, Colin Kaepernick, Cody Kessler, Jacoby Brissett and Josh McCown.
That offers Pace at least some context and maybe even a sliver of hope that a dependable starter can be found beyond the first round of the draft.
Within this year’s ordinary quarterback draft class, Kaaya (Miami) offers eye-catching arm strength but has been plagued by inconsistency. Pitt’s Peterman was under the Bears’ watch at the Senior Bowl last month and plays with football savvy. But he projects as more of an NFL backup than a franchise difference-maker.
Mahomes, right now, seems to be the hottest name among possible Day 2 quarterbacks. ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. lauds Mahomes’ prototypical size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds) and big arm but expresses curiosity as to how quickly he will adapt on the pro level coming out of Texas Tech’s spread system.
"There is no issue physically," Kiper said. "There is no issue with arm strength or his mobility or character and attitude and approach. But it’s the system. How far will that push him down?"
As for the idea that the Bears could wait until Day 3 of the draft to find their quarterback? That’s a wildly risky proposition, especially given how subpar this year’s class is. Would there really be anything for the Bears to gain emerging from the draft with Tennessee’s Josh Dobbs, Iowa’s C.J. Beathard, Baylor’s Seth Russell or Tiffin’s Antonio Pipkin as their biggest quarterback acquisition?
If Pace wakes up April 29 — the final day of the draft — and still hasn’t checked the top box on his to-do list, he should expect a bombardment of questions and criticism.
Status quo
Photos of Bears quarterback Jay Cutler.
Quarterbacks in play: Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley.
The skinny: It would be difficult to justify keeping Cutler. But the soon-to-be-34-year-old quarterback is signed through 2020, due to make up to $15 million next season if the Bears wanted him around.
Because of the structure of Cutler’s contract, the Bears can cut him before September at no cost with only a moderate salary cap hit. That seems to be the most likely scenario, unless Pace can find a quarterback-needy trade partner willing to part with a middle- to late-round draft pick after the new league year begins March 9.
Any argument circulating that coach John Fox would be wise to keep Cutler for a "win or else" season in 2017 is misguided. Cutler has been Fox’s opening-day starter the last two seasons and the Bears have finished last in the NFC North both years. Cutler has won only seven of the 20 starts he has made under Fox. And it’s crystal clear the Bears are seeking new energy and a new direction at the position.
Hoyer will become a free agent next month but has expressed interest in re-signing as a potential bridge quarterback and veteran mentor to a younger prospect.
That option is one the Bears will consider seriously.
dwiederer@chicagotribune.com
Twitter @danwiederer
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