Comments made by President Donald Trump’s chief strategist Steve Bannon in March 2016 about the U.S. and China going to war within the next ten years have resurfaced as he gains influence in the White House, sparking concerns that combat between the two super powers are less of a far-fetched idea and more real than ever.
“We’re going to war in the South China Sea in five to 10 years. There’s no doubt about that. They’re taking their sandbars and making basically stationary aircraft carriers and putting missiles on those. They come here to the United States in front of our face – and you understand how important face is – and say it’s an ancient territorial sea,” Bannon said at the time.
Chinese officials also reportedly said in January 2016 that the likelihood of war “increases” in response to disputes regarding the South China Sea and North Korea.
“‘A war within the president’s term’, ‘war breaking out tonight’ are not just slogans, but the reality,” Liu Guoshun, a member of China’s Central Military Commission’s defense mobilization unit, said in a report on the Chinese military’s website.
A report released in March 2016 by the US Congressional Research Service stated that China’s military – officially called the People’s Liberation Army – was building a “modern and regionally powerful military.” The country has some advantages in comparison to the U.S., especially given its 1.3 population with four times as many citizens to draft for war. Its numbers shrunk from 3 million active servicemen in 1992 to 2.3 million in present day, but the numbers still win in comparison to the U.S.’ 1.4 million active members in the military.
However, one aspect of the U.S. military that has the leg up on China is the amount of money spent on defense. China spends around 2 percent of its GDP, lower than the U.S.’s rough average of 3.3 percent. The country also has a stronger and larger international presence while China has honed in on military abilities at the local level.
“The US has tremendous advantages, but those advantages are diminishing over time because China is becoming more technologically advanced. It is closing the gap a bit. I’d also say the quantity has an advantage that is all its own. China is just able to build more ships, to build a lot of planes. That has a military effect,” the National Bureau of Asian Research’s senior vice president for political and security affairs Abraham Denmark told Vice.
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