The Arizona Diamondbacks posted a 24-8 record last spring before finishing in fourth place in the National League West with a 69-93 record.
The Los Angeles Angels were 19-8 last spring, only to get swept by the Cubs in their opening series and finishing with a 74-88 record in the American League Central.
Those examples strongly support the assessment of Cubs manager Joe Maddon about the dangers of forming opinions too soon.
"I don’t get overly enamored with early evaluations," Maddon said after the Cubs’ first workout. "I don’t get over-enamored with spring training evaluations. I learned that years ago that you can be seriously fooled both ways. Guys that had been good the year before being terrible in camp, and you get cold on them, and vice versa.
"Spring training is a different animal. Some guys will come in better shape and more ready to go and show better in the beginning. More established guys may utilize this time to work on a couple things, thus they might not show as well. It’s all about health. It’s about getting everyone ready for that first game in St. Louis, and that’s it."
As an example, Jake Arrieta had a 5.56 ERA last spring but still managed to win 18 games and post a 3.10 ERA. Javier Baez was only 6-for-30 (.200) in spring training but posted a .273 batting average while providing Gold Glove-caliber defense at several positions.
"I’m not a big evaluator," Maddon said. "Now there’s going to be that situation, like a fifth starter with two guys batting it out with a similar background, then you got to pay a little more attention, possibly.
"But it’s such a rare thing you’re trying to evaluate in a sense, how good is this guy or where does he really fit on the spectrum, just base on spring training. You got to really rely on what he’d done last year."
Caption Scenes from Monday’s Cubs spring training workout
Scenes from the Cubs’ spring training workout in Mesa, Ariz., on Feb. 20, 2017. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)
Scenes from the Cubs’ spring training workout in Mesa, Ariz., on Feb. 20, 2017. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)
Caption Scenes from Monday’s Cubs spring training workout
Scenes from the Cubs’ spring training workout in Mesa, Ariz., on Feb. 20, 2017. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)
Scenes from the Cubs’ spring training workout in Mesa, Ariz., on Feb. 20, 2017. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)
Caption Tim Buss, dressed for the occasion, leads Cubs’ warmups
Cubs strength and conditioning coordinator Tim Buss leads warmups in a top hat and sports coat on Monday, Feb. 20, 2017. (Mark Gonzales/Chicago Tribune)
Cubs strength and conditioning coordinator Tim Buss leads warmups in a top hat and sports coat on Monday, Feb. 20, 2017. (Mark Gonzales/Chicago Tribune)
Caption Joe Maddon on Tim Buss, nuns and getting to know Eloy Jimenez
Cubs manager Joe Maddon reacts to strength and conditioning coordinator Tim Buss’ attire during Monday’s warmups and discusses having nuns at spring training and getting to know top prospect Eloy Jimenez on Monday, Feb. 20, 2017. (Mark Gonzales/Chicago Tribune)
Cubs manager Joe Maddon reacts to strength and conditioning coordinator Tim Buss’ attire during Monday’s warmups and discusses having nuns at spring training and getting to know top prospect Eloy Jimenez on Monday, Feb. 20, 2017. (Mark Gonzales/Chicago Tribune)
Caption Cubs’ Jason Heyward takes batting practice
Cubs right fielder Jason Heyward takes batting practice on Monday, Feb. 20, 2017, in Mesa, Ariz. (Mark Gonzales/Chicago Tribune)
Cubs right fielder Jason Heyward takes batting practice on Monday, Feb. 20, 2017, in Mesa, Ariz. (Mark Gonzales/Chicago Tribune)
Caption Ben Zobrist on Cubs’ first day of live batting practice
Ben Zobrist reacts after the Cubs’ first day of live batting practice on Monday, Feb. 20, 2017. (Mark Gonzales/Chicago Tribune)
Ben Zobrist reacts after the Cubs’ first day of live batting practice on Monday, Feb. 20, 2017. (Mark Gonzales/Chicago Tribune)
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