Atlanta Falcons reporter Vaughn McClure and New England Patriots reporter Mike Reiss take an in-depth look at the Super Bowl LI matchup between the Falcons and Patriots.
Record: 11-5, regular season
First place, NFC South
Matt Ryan spoke with a number of Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks before and during the season about the process of achieving the NFL’s ultimate prize. Maybe next season, somebody will be reaching out to him.
The 31-year-old, who is the leading MVP candidate, is competing for his first Super Bowl ring as the Falcons and Patriots square off Sunday.
“I think we’ve come a long way,” Ryan said. “We’ve gotten better, and that’s one of the things we focused on in the offseason, trying to find ways to improve as a team, as an offense. I think the addition of some of the players that we picked up — guys like Taylor [Gabriel], Alex Mack, Aldrick Robinson, Mohamed Sanu — just have added to our team and made us a better offense.”
Can the Falcons score enough points to overtake Tom Brady and the mighty Patriots? With both teams averaging better than 35 points a game this postseason, it could make for quite a shootout.
Taylor Gabriel. Julio Jones will draw his share of attention, as always. The running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman might find it difficult to get the run going against a Patriots defense that hasn’t allowed even a 90-yard rusher in 25 straight games. So, somebody else might have to step to the forefront, and that guy could be speedy wide receiver Gabriel. Jones talked about how safeties can’t cheat anymore with the vertical threat Gabriel presents on the opposite side. Gabriel averaged 42.7 yards on his six receiving touchdowns during the regular season. He also has a 37-yard reception this postseason, so he’s capable of getting behind any defense and creating an explosive play.
Matt Ryan. The likely MVP has been on fire during a current six-game winning streak, with 18 touchdowns, no interceptions, an average of 310.2 passing yards and a completion percentage of 72.8. If Ryan continues his torrid pace and continues to spread the ball around — he established an NFL first with touchdown passes to 13 different receivers this season — the Falcons will be on track for another 30-plus-point outing, even against a Patriots defense that surrendered a league-low 15.6 points per game. The Falcons also need Ryan to take care of the ball and need the offense to sustain drives. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Ryan is 20-of-22 on third down this postseason with 15 first downs and three touchdowns. Ryan also has engineered eight consecutive opening-drive touchdowns. That’s winning football.
Inexperience. Although the Falcons have the NFL’s oldest active roster with an average age of 27.5, they have plenty of inexperienced young players set to play on the big stage. The most noticeable are the four rookie starters on defense — strong safety Keanu Neal, linebacker Deion Jones, linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and nickelback Brian Poole. All four players have been very productive this season, but how will they react under the bright lights of the Super Bowl? Not to mention those players will have to contend with Brady, a four-time Super Bowl champ and three-time Super Bowl MVP. In addition, the Falcons have a trio of inexperienced second-year players on defense in NFL sacks leader Vic Beasley Jr., cornerback Jalen Collins and nose tackle Grady Jarrett. Coach Dan Quinn said the youngsters are playing like they’re much older and the older players are playing much younger. We’ll see whether the trend continues Sunday.
The Falcons are on a mission not just for themselves but for the entire city of Atlanta. This is a confident group that not only believes it can score on anyone but also believes it has the right mixture of youth and experience on defense to come up with big stops when needed most. Sure, it’s a much tougher challenge going up against Brady, who is aiming for his fifth Super Bowl title and is 4-0 all time against the Falcons. But the Falcons defeated a pair of Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks to get here in Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has tricked defenses the entire season with his masterful playcalling, which has generated 40 points per game this postseason. Shanahan certainly has more up his sleeve before he exits to become the head coach of the 49ers. Falcons 35, Patriots 28
Record: 14-2
First place, AFC East
The first quarter has been on Bill Belichick’s mind so much leading up to Super Bowl LI that, by the end of the week, quarterback Tom Brady was sick of hearing about it.
“I’d like to score a lot more points than zero, which we’ve done the last six times,” Brady said of the Patriots’ first-quarter scoring output in Super Bowls. “Coach Belichick has reminded me 10 times in the last 10 days.”
A faster start is a necessity for the Patriots, which sparks an intriguing possibility to consider: If New England wins the opening toss, would it take the ball instead of its normal choice of deferring to the second half? The Patriots did decide to take the ball first in the AFC Championship Game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Patriots were an exceptional first-quarter team in the regular season, outscoring opponents 130-32. That means they seldom played from behind.
Ditto for the Falcons, who held a 139-68 edge over opponents in the first quarter during the regular season and enter the Super Bowl having scored touchdowns on eight straight opening drives, the longest streak since the 2003 Patriots started five straight games with touchdowns.
As Brady said in the days leading up to the game, the Falcons were usually leading by so many points it was difficult to find “got-to-have-it” situations in which their defense showed a consistent pattern of what it relies on most.
Thus, which team wrests control of the first quarter is one of the more compelling subplots of Super Bowl LI.
In the high-stakes games in which the Patriots have experienced some of their most painful defeats, such as last year’s AFC Championship Game or the two Super Bowls against the New York Giants, one of the key factors has been offensive line struggles. Their inability to turn to the running game to settle things down made them too one-dimensional, simplifying things for the opposing D.
So it all starts up front for the Patriots with the starting line of left tackle Nate Solder, left guard Joe Thuney, center David Andrews, right guard Shaq Mason and right tackle Marcus Cannon. Each played more than 90 percent of the offensive snaps during the regular season, with line coach Dante Scarnecchia crediting that continuity as critical.
The Falcons, in turn, feel the same way, as they are the only team this season to start the same five offensive linemen in each game.
To sum it up, the Patriots’ ability to create space in the running game, which in turn will open up play-action passing opportunities, will be critical.
Brady is on a mission, and the Patriots’ physicality on both sides of the line of scrimmage gives them the best chance to control the game. And then it’s all about what happens after the catch on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Patriots’ fundamental tackling will have to deliver against the big-play Falcons offense. In the regular season, the Patriots led the NFL by allowing an average of just 4.05 yards after the catch and the Falcons’ offense was second in the NFL in averaging 6.18 yards after the catch. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ offense averaged a league-high 6.34 yards after the catch.
If they get sloppy with the football. There is arguably no more powerful statistic as it relates to the success of the Patriots in the Belichick-Brady era (2000-present) than turnover differential. When the Patriots win the turnover differential, they have posted a regular-season record of 137-13. When they lose it, their regular-season record is 34-41. When it’s even, they are 30-17. This is why Falcons coach Dan Quinn said that if there is one thing that will decide the outcome, “it’s all about the ball.” The Patriots and Falcons each had a league-low 11 turnovers in the regular season.
Texans coach Bill O’Brien previously explained how the Patriots’ diverse offensive backfield stresses opposing defenses because of the diverse skill sets of power back LeGarrette Blount, dual threat Dion Lewis and passing back James White. With the Patriots relying on their foundation from the start of training camp, which has included practicing in full pads once a week into early February, physicality, starting with the running game, will be a trademark stamp of their approach in Super Bowl LI. And, of course, it never hurts to have Brady leading the way. Patriots 37, Falcons 31.
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