PORT ST. LUCIE — Put Zack Wheeler on the Strasburg plan.
Place him in the starting rotation to begin the season. Let him get to 120 or so innings as organically as possible, going by the way he feels and performs. Then sit him for the rest of the season, as the Nationals memorably did with their Tommy John surgery recoveree Stephen Strasburg in 2012, and let his teammates carry the baton the rest of the way, with Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, a newly rising prospect or a trade acquisition filling the void.
The Mets appear uncertain as to how they’ll get Wheeler, who has missed the prior two seasons after undergoing the Tommy John procedure in March 2015, to his prescribed innings limit that pitching coach Dan Warthen said Wednesday would “probably … be in the low 100s.” Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins have floated the idea of assigning Wheeler to the bullpen for Opening Day, a suggestion Warthen seems to regard with about the same level of enthusiasm Arizona Sen. John McCain holds for President Trump.
More to the point, uncertainty exists whether Wheeler can stay healthy enough to make this debate relevant. If Wheeler can actually clock 120 or so innings, no matter his path there, the Mets should consider it a triumph.
The Mets’ tenuous foundation showed its first public crack Wednesday, four days before the first full-squad workout, when the entertainingly honest Warthen revealed Wheeler “had a little bit of tenderness” in his most recent bullpen session and therefore would move back his schedule by a day. Wheeler, who told club officials he felt better after taking anti-inflammatory medication, plans to throw off flat ground Thursday and throw in the bullpen on Friday.
“We will have kid gloves with him,” Warthen vowed, and that’s why he expressed doubts over the wisdom of placing Wheeler in the bullpen, where the 26-year-old holds minimal experience. Last week, Wheeler told The Post’s Kevin Kernan of his concern that he’ll get relegated to the relief corps and never leave there.
The greater concern, however, has to be Wheeler’s simple readiness for 2017, right? We’re talking about a guy who has experienced a flurry of setbacks in his efforts to return to the mound. Wheeler, so far, finds himself among the unwanted minority of Tommy John patients who don’t make it back to the mound smoothly.
That could be because Wheeler apparently struggled to keep a starter’s schedule well before he went under the knife.
“It’s always been difficult for him to recover between starts, so it’s tough for him to throw bullpens,” Warthen said. “But there are a lot of pitchers like that. They just don’t recover well, and they make it to the fifth day and everything shows up. He has a lot of soreness after each start. Not in critical areas.”
Wheeler’s rotation mate Steven Matz has never thrown more than the 155 ²/₃ innings he registered in 2015 (adding up minor leagues, major leagues and the postseason) and followed that up with last year’s 132 ¹/₃-inning effort slowed down by left shoulder and elbow woes. Matt Harvey faces a tough road back from thoracic outlet syndrome. The ultra-durable Bartolo Colon took off for Atlanta. Jacob deGrom’s return from his own right elbow procedure gets lost among this banged-up crowd. And all of this explains why Warthen has drawn up a preservation plan by which his young arms will hold a mound session every third day and wait until later in camp to throw during fielding drills.
Overly conservative? Maybe. But looking out for athletes’ health should never be frowned upon.
The baseball industry largely mocked the Nationals when they benched Strasburg in September 2012, after 159 ¹/₃ innings, and proceeded to drop the NL Division Series to the Cardinals. Then Strasburg pitched quite well, his right elbow intact, for 3 ¹/₂ seasons, earning a seven-year, $175-million extension, giving Washington the last laugh … until Strasburg’s pitching elbow barked last summer and shut him down for the playoffs again.
This managing pitching thing ain’t easy, yet the journey for Wheeler should be simple: Let him start, where he’ll be more comfortable and he can help more. The destination of actually hitting his innings limit, and inviting Strasburg-esque scrutiny, looms as the greater challenge.
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