HOUSTON — Regular visitors to this space may recall my good friend, Billy the Whale, so named because back home in Las Vegas, that is the nickname grudgingly given to those heavyweight gamblers the local books fear the most and react to the hardest. Some of them won’t even take their action. Others adjust accordingly.
I recall a summer evening when Billy, whose square name is William Krackomberger, wanted to bet the over on total runs in a San Diego Padres game, which was listed on the board at the Coast Casino as seven. The clerk behind the counter said, “Sure. Just a minute, ” and picked up the phone. When he put it down he said, “You got a bet but the number now is eight.”
Billy had moved the line.
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Upon further study I discovered that he was an ex-patriot from New Jersey, which explained it all. New Jersey is a state where sports betting is not a hobby. It’s a birthright.
There is no university, no community college and no trade school that could have given Billy what he needed to move to the head of his class. There are no courses in “Vigorish 101” or “Wiseguy Money 203” or “How to Catch a Middle 300.” For all their credentials, the Harvards, the Yales, the Dukes and the Stanfords couldn’t have provided a scintilla of the education Billy got in the only classroom where you can get it. He earned his degree from the educational but unforgiving streets.
It was time to get his Ph.D. from the very best. Billy packed his bags and headed to Vegas. He was 37 with a hard-times street degree in his pocket and the voice of experience whispering in his ear. Billy from Jersey was ready to assault the Camelot of all sports betting.
It didn’t take Billy long to be awarded his “whale-hood.”
“Information is the key to successful sports betting,” he says. “I’m tied in with some of the sharpest people in the business. But they don’t know money management. If they made the bets themselves, they’d fail because they’d bet with their emotions.”
On Thursday, during the lull before the frenetic Las Vegas Super Bowl betting storm, Billy took a moment to comment on what he has already observed about the Super Bowl odds, the bettors and he way he views the trends.
”The game is three days away,” he said. ”The House has the Pats as 3-point favorites. I think that for Falcons bettors, the odds will get even better because on the weekend, we’ll get the squares and the tourists coming to town and they will be pouring money in on New England.
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“Well, here’s a little inside information. This is Thursday and the MGM took two very significant bets today. One was for $500,000 and the other was $300,000, and they both were on the Falcons. I will bet the Falcons closer to the game time.”
He will also look hard and favorably at a prop bet involving Patriots wide receiver Chris Hogan. It’s an over/under bet on the yardage of a single catch, with number at 211/2. Billy’s research shows he’s done it in five of his last six games against better defenses than Atlanta. He will bet the over.
That was Thursday. Late Friday night, Billy reaffirmed his conviction.
“It goes against logic,” he said.
The largest off-shore betting house (Curacao) has been flooded with Pats money, but it is holding he line at New England -3.
According to Jay Rood, the boss at MGM Sports Book, his joint took in a pair of $300,000 wagers on Atlanta. And the biggest of all is from a verifiable source that at Cantor gaming, which operates in six strip casinos, a single million-dollar bet was made on the Falcons.
And on Saturday, there came a final bulletin from Whale Headquarters.
“Just found out that, as I suspected, the New England money is pouring in and the Westgate this morning kept the odds at -3, but now to get that bet you have to lay $115 to win $100,” he said.
An hour earlier you only had to lay $110.
Billy bet on the Falcons later in the day.
Now here’s what I think: Patriots coach Bill Belichick may be the best ever. What he really does best in big games is to take his opponent’s best weapon out of the game. The feeling is the object of all that attention will rightfully be Falcons explosive receiver Julio Jones. The Patriots secondary is about the most talented in the league.
Even before the NFC Championship Game, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had thrown touchdown passes to 13 different receivers. As formidable as the Belichick Factor can be, this challenge is just as serious.
One more thing: Patriots quarterback Tom Brady eats blitzers for breakfast, but he can’t be left unchallenged. Look for Atlanta to move its best pass rushers around and concentrate on the middle of the Pats’ offensive line to take away Brady’s ability to step up in the pocket.
The Falcons win games by scoring first and often and that first drive generally is designed to swallow a lot of clock. Should they get up by, say, 10 points early in the game, their formula is to be more than willing to trade score for score after that. Its their kind of math If it happens, that means the franchise’s first Super Bowl victory.
I like the Falcons, 27-21.
Jerry Izenberg is Columnist Emeritus for The Star-Ledger. He is one of two newspaper columnists to attend all 51 Super Bowls. He can be reached at jizenberg@starledger.com.
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