Patriots (-3) over Falcons / OVER 58 ¹/₂ (at Houston): The Seahawks franchise won’t be striving for its second Super Bowl championship Sunday, but its immediate spiritual descendants are here in body and spirit.
A good deal of the Seahawks’ essence is present through second-year Falcons head coach Dan Quinn. After serving on the Seahawks’ staff for two years, beginning in 2009, he returned after a two-year interval as the Florida Gators’ defensive coordinator to assume that same position for Seattle in January 2013.
His defensive stylings played a large part of the demolition of the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII. Two years later, he accepted the head-coaching assignment in Atlanta, and in his second season proceeded to guide the Falcons to this plateau, their second Super Bowl appearance.
The Patriots return for their ninth Super Bowl, in quest of their fifth triumph. Their fourth came in Super XLIX, versus a Seahawks outfit seeking to repeat. But in Quinn’s absence, the remaining Seahawks defense left Russell Wilson and his mates with too much to do, culminating in the bizarre interception a yard away from paydirt which settled the matter.
With the best-ever conglomeration of Seahawks defensive talent, Quinn was a Cover-3 defensive guy, and won his title with it. Quinn still is deploying the troops in much the same defensive key, and though the defense isn’t the equal of New England’s, it has served the Falcons well enough — with the aid and comfort of a Matt Ryan-led offensive juggernaut which has cranked out better than 33 points per game, and a multiplicity of pro receiving talents headed by Julio Jones.
This is Tom Brady’s seventh Super Bowl, of which he has won four. The losses came when Brady faced rapacious Giants pass rushes, aided by Big Blue’s more-than-capable secondary, thus foiling the otherwise-reliable Bill Belichick point-production formula. Facing anything less formidable — with Super Bowl XLIX the most-relevant evidence — Brady and his slippery veteran receivers found sufficient daylight underneath often enough to outscore the competition.
We’re not expecting much different here, with the Falcons and Quinn fielding as many as four rookies (Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell and/or Brian Poole) to deal with Brady’s air game. Though talented, they are broadly untested against this caliber of athlete — as is, for that matter, the sainted Ryan, himself in his initial acquaintance with roman numerals. Injury issues have left Atlanta with Vic Beasley as their primary pass-rushing weapon. Beasley is a major player, but he is only one guy, and Belichick has long been a master of dealing with “one guy.”
Belichick’s task is simplified considerably by the limited scope of the Atlanta running game, at this level. Running back Devonta Freeman is not chopped liver, and a legitimate receiving threat, but he is facing a defense that has allowed just a half-dozen rushing touchdowns in the regular season (none since October!). So the task largely is left up to Ryan, Jones and Co., with Belichick having a pretty good idea of what is coming, on a play-by-play basis. Ryan had a high old time against Green Bay’s doubled-and-vulnerable secondary.
This shouldn’t be so easy — though the Falcons are capable. It is no coincidence the one 2016 loss New England endured with Tom Brady in action was against the stylistically-similar Seahawks … at Gillette, yet.
Atlanta arguably has played the tougher schedule, has displayed sustained come-from-behind abilities and, of late, the team with the inferior overall record typically arrives underrated — and covers. But Belichick’s first title as head coach came against the Rams’ Greatest Show on Turf, and subsequent Super wins against the Eagles and Panthers developed against capable offensive sides which didn’t have the Big Game experience edge the Pats enjoyed. Sound familiar?
We don’t expect a rout, in large part because of Belichick’s February style — which typically features infuriatingly slow starts. New England never has won a Super by more than four points. We don’t expect the Falcons to get blitzed — though center Alex Mack had better be healthy for this dog, and stay that way. A competitive game should generate beaucoup points — while Brady makes his point, to the Commish, thus infuriating the Patriots-despising NFL fanbase beyond measure.
Patriots, 34-30.
Conference championships: Sides: 1-1. Over/Unders: 2-0
Postseason: Sides: 5-5. Over/Unders: 6-4
Follow Richard Witt on Twitter: @rich_witt1
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