This is an end of year very difficult for the French economy. The mobilization of the “yellow vests”, which began on 17 November and has continued since, has been marked by many incidents. She has also had a direct impact on growth, as shown by the latest statistics published by Insee on Friday. Review.
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• The morale of business leaders in bern
The indicator that synthesises the business climate has heavily dropped in December. Compared to November, he loses three points, to 102 points. He won by seven points in the retail trade and in the industry. “In December, the entrepreneurs are far more pessimistic in November about the general business outlook of the sector: the balance associated with falling to its lowest level since January 2015, certainly link with the social movement of the ‘yellow vests'”, explains Insee.
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It is in the retail trade that the morale is at the lowest: the business climate “darkens considerably,” says Insee. And for good reason. In many cities, such as Paris or Bordeaux, the shops have especially suffered degradations that have punctuated the protests and blockages of roundabouts. This morning, the director general of the Printemps Haussmann, Pierre Pellarey, believed that the fall in sales of its flagship store paris should be around 10% in December. As a direct consequence, business leaders are much more numerous than in November anticipate a decline in sales over the next three months. They are also more likely to plan to reduce their workforce, notes the Insee.
note that the situation is less catastrophic in the services and the building. According to the business leaders of these sectors, the business climate remains stable in December.
• The consumer folds
consumption is one of the main engines of French growth. And the engine coughs. In November, household consumption declined by 0.3%, under the effect of a decrease in food (0.5%) and manufactured goods (0.6% decrease), while the growth of energy consumption slowed to 0.7%. The consumption of durable goods has declined “significantly” from 1.1% while spending on apparel declined marginally (by 0.1%). The fuel consumption is lower by 1%. In contrast, the consumption of electricity and gas has increased by 2.1%.
• growth revised down in third quarter
Insee revised down by 0.1 percentage point to growth in the third quarter in France. It is finally established to be 0.3% versus 0.4% previously estimated. The fourth quarter is expected to be even more difficult. As the Bank of France, Insee expects GDP growth of just 0.2% over this period, compared with 0.4% initially expected. Logically, the forecast for the year is revised down to 1.5%. A level that remains above 1.7% to which still clings the government.
• A debt, which approximates slightly more than 100% of GDP
At the end of the third quarter, the public debt of France is close-a little more than a symbolic threshold of 100% of GDP. According to the Insee, it has increased by 0.3 points compared to the second quarter of 2018 and now stands at 99.3%. Either 2322,3 billion euros. In detail, the debt of the State accelerates (+32.2 billion). In contrast, the contribution of local public authorities decreases moderately (0.5 billion): “the common désendettent of 0.3 billion, the departments of 0.5 billion and the regions of 0.1 billion”, explains Insee. This increase in debt is a bad news for the government when it seeks to finance the social measures announced by Emmanuel Macron, the cost of which is estimated at 10 billion euros.
