CLEVELAND, Ohio – This year, the Grammys’ Album of the Year category is loaded with four of the biggest stars in music and Sturgill Simpson.

Yes, Simpson sticks out like a sore thumb among the multi-platinum sales of his competitors. In fact, while Simpson’s “A Sailor’s Guide to Earth” is critically acclaimed, many thought that final spot might go to an act like Radiohead or David Bowie.

Album of the Year

  • Adele – “25”
  • Beyonce – “Lemonade”
  • Drake – “Views”
  • Justin Bieber – “Purpose”
  • Sturgill Simpson – “A Sailor’s Guide to Earth”

Still, Simpson is no slouch in an era where alt-country music is at its peak and the level of musicianship showcased on “A Sailor’s Guide to Earth” will appeal to Grammy voters.

Why it could win: We’re not going to kid you — “A Sailor’s Guide to Earth” is the biggest long shot among this year’s nominees. But stranger things have happened. Arcade Fire came out of nowhere in 2011. Herbie Hancock once beat out Eminem and Amy Winehouse. The “O Brother, Where Art Thou?” soundtrack overcame Outkast, Bob Dylan and U2 in 2002.

From a sound and style standpoint, “A Sailor’s Guide to Earth” isn’t all that dissimilar to Beck’s “Morning Phase” or Mumford & Sons “Babel,” both recent Album of the Year winners. Grammy voters have always been open to awarding records outside of mainstream pop landscape.

Why it won’t win: Adele, Beyonce, Drake and Justin Bieber. These are all household names. Beyond that, Simpson would easily be the most obscure Album of Year winner since the mid 1960s, if not ever. The fact he’s nominated is something of a miracle in itself.

“A Sailor’s Guide to Earth” does not boast any hits (Even Mumford & Sons had “I Will Wait”), while Simpson has only one other nomination for Best Country Album. Herbie Hancock only won one other award when “River: The Joni Letters” took Album of the Year. But even Hancock had at least three overall nominations that year.

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