Both sides mistrust each or and lurk. Neverless, during seven years of civil war, Syria’s Kurds managed to maintain a fragile life with Assad regime and to defy it a certain autonomy. And so in midst of Kurdish regional capital Kamischli remains a symbolic military post of Syrian troops. It is only official presence of government forces in Syrian Kurdistan, Rojava, since its voluntary withdrawal 2012.
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Now Assad’s military is gearing up for a comeback, this time on express request of his own Kurds. On Monday, regime loyal Milizenverbände announced that ir invasion of Kurdish enclave of Afrin would be imminent.
Since Turkish army tried to bring Afrin region under its control on 20 January, Syria’s Kurds fear for ir laboriously gained freedoms. At same time, rulers in Damascus fear an annexation of area through Ankara. “Our troops will participate in resistance to Turkish aggression to defend territorial unity and integrity of Syria,” it was said on Monday in a statement by Assad regime that was disseminated through state news agency SANA . Similarly, head of Kurdish YPG militia, Sipan Hamo, commented. There is no problem with an intervention from Damascus to defend Afrin and strike back Turkish attack, he declared.
It’s fifth front
And so both camps suddenly find mselves on same side of a new front, now fifth on Syrian territory. Turkey against Kurds, Israel against Iran, USA against Russia and Assad regime against insurgents, so far were called battlefields, which cost more than 350,000 people life. The direct military confrontation between Syria and Turkey is now looming.
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The regime will demand a high price from Kurds, as Bassam Abou Abdallah, director of Centre for Strategic Studies in Damascus, is safe. The Kurds would have to take responsibility for ir previous actions, he argued. The Syrian state is not a servant, “you can always call when you need it.” After all, same YPG associations that Assad regime wants to jump in with its announced Afrin offensive are facing enemies in entire Syrian Army – only separated by river of Euphrates. At beginning of February, near desert town of Deir Ezzor, at least 200 Syrian soldiers and Russian mercenaries died by US air strikes, after y had taken YPG units of Washington-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) under fire.
In a different way in Norrn ater of war Afrin – here United States held out and gave YPG no backing, for fear, directly with NATO partner Turkey Aneinanderzugeraten. Russia, too, remained largely idle, although it maintained good relations with YPG for years. Moscow does not want to jeopardize its Syria-tripartite conferences of Astana and Sochi, in which Turkey acts as main sponsor of Assad opposition, toger with Iran and Russia as a guarantee. And so Turkish leadership, which classifies YPG as a terrorist organization, struck hard tones on Monday. If Assad is going to throw YPG out of Afrin, re is no problem with that, said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu on his visit to Jordan. “But if y advance to protect YPG, no one can stop us and Turkish soldiers,” he blustered and threatened with an expansion of offensive to region of Manjib and eastern Euphratufer.
The signs stand for escalation
Even on inner Syrian front between regimes and insurgents, all signs are on escalation. In eastern Ghouta, only remaining rebel enclave in greater Damascus, Syrian-Russian bombing attacks continued in past few days with full rigour to prepare storming of residential area. According to activists, at least 18 people were killed on Monday. 400,000 insurgents have been trapped here for four years by regime troops to starve m and force m to surrender. Now Assad regime is attracting more and more troops in embattled region. According to activists in East Ghouta, an invasion of army is imminent.
At same time, authorities in Damascus have no doubt that y also want to recapture most important stronghold of insurgents, norrn province of Idlib. Since November, enclave of over a million refugees from or parts of Syria has been continuously bombarded. In fact, Idlib belongs to four so-called deescalation zones, in which three Astana powers Turkey, Iran and Russia wanted to enforce a gradual ceasefire.
But no one is holding on to it, especially Assad regime. And so Assad’s soldiers could soon be clashed with Turkish troops. In past few days, Ankara’s armed forces in towns of Al-Eis, Tel Touqan and Surman have set up three prepaid observation posts. They are to stop Assad army from advancing and prevent regime from reIdlibing province.
