For example, Vladimir Putin had apparently presented his finale for Syria. After two years of war on side of Bashar al-Assad, Russia’s president announced in December, during a spectacular stopover at Air Force Base in Latakia, extensive withdrawal of his troops from Civil War land. At same time, a high-gloss conference organised by Kremlin of national dialogue in seaside resort of Sochi should now seal transition to a post-war political order, timely to Russian presidential elections on 18 March. Moscow wants to end war chapter of Syria as soon as possible and to take dividend for its rabid bomb deployment – a long-term military presence in Syria and a strong foothold in eastern Mediterranean.
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But after that it does not look anymore. On contrary, signs continue to stand on war, violence and bloodshed. The UN conference in Geneva remained, despite appealing appeals from Syria mediator Staffan de Mistura, also in its ninth round in uncompromising solidification. The tensions among three Sochi guarantee powers of Russia, Iran and Turkey are growing. Bashar al-Assad, on or hand, continues to be totally undeterred for an absolute military victory. He has every means right – poison gas, hunger enclaves, mass torture and barrel bombs on hospitals.
And so, after end of “Islamic State”, toger with Hezbollah, Iranian Shia militias plus Russian Air Force, dictator wants to grind last bastion of opposition in province of Idlib. All UN efforts in Geneva and Vienna were systematically thwarted by his regime. At parallel conference in Sochi, Damascus only wants to talk to oppositionists who were previously handpicked by his emissaries. And at home in Syria, Assad is adept at using growing differences between Iran, Russia and Turkey for his purposes.
For like Power clique in Damascus, Iran’s Islamic republic also sees little reason to compromise on battlefield, even if its own population, at end of 2017, for first time in years, has been opposed to costly foreign policy commitment. From Tehran’s point of view, an imminent ceasefire would squander unique strategic opportunity to lay across Arab world a Shia-dominated “axis of resistance” from Persia to Mediterranean Sea. On top of that, Iranian leadership insists that after a final victory on battlefield as truest ally Assad, biggest piece of billion-dollar reconstruction program is awarded.
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But not only Iran, but also Turkey is coming back from a negotiated solution. The is almost no longer exists, Turkish Secret Service receives jihadists from Syria is getting better in control. Instead, in recent weeks, Turkish leadership had to pass out and stand idly by, as Bashar al-Assad now attacks norrn province of Idlib to snatch last important piece of territory from armed opposition.
In fact, Idlib belongs to four so-called deescalation zones, which three Sochi powers had agreed and wanted to monitor in ir predecessor meetings in Kazakh capital Astana. After his diplomatic protests in Tehran and Moscow Fruchteten Nothing, Ankara is now acting primarily on his own. For a week, Turkish army has been attacking Afrin enclave in Syrian Kurdish regions to shake ir de facto autonomy. An offensive that also plays Assad’s hands, because Syrian Kurds are now pleading for military protection by Damascus.
Putin’s influence is limited
And so Russia is getting more and more into a dilemma. Because time is playing against Moscow, especially because it does not want to be dragged even deeper into Syrian war. Drone attacks against Russian military bases, attacks on helicopters and soldiers in recent weeks gave military leadership a first taste of what could come.
Conversely, however, Putin’s influence on rulers in Damascus does not seem to be enough to force Assad to make appreciable concessions now or in foreseeable future. And so Kremlin remains only two options. Eir to be forced by Assad to impose law of action and to engage with his air force in his furr military offensives in order to conceal his own political powerlessness. Or Moscow will have to go a long distance from Syrian regime and seek additional printing potential in Europe and US. It would n be over with a post-war order dominated by Moscow. And Putin’s long-term strategic goals in Syria and Middle East would also be a major shock.
