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In semicircle, Turkish Grenzedie encloses small province of Afrin. The or half is bordered by hostile SyrischesGebiet. From all sides, troops back to inland, FreieSyrische Army from west, jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from south, Turkish units mainly from north and east. In last 24 hours, ErsteRaketen have taken heart Afrins: dam near Meydanki. The residents have great anxiety that could vomit. Many are on run, although y are encircled undeigentlich nowhere to be able to. You can only hope not to get caught between diefrons.
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Turkey, however, seems to be serious about Diekurdische militia YPG from Afrin and n from all over norrn Syria. In this way, it plunges a region into chaos, which had come back to stability and peace under Kurdish administration. It was only glimmer of hope where people of different religions, denominations or ethnicities can live toger and re is more equality between men and women than in rest of country.
On or hand, Turkey may have guteGründe for its offensive: it feels threatened by state Project DerKurden at its own border. Only a small part between ProvinzAfrin and Euphrates is still missing, n Kurdish party controls PYDeinen corridor, stretching across almost all of norrn Syria to Dieirakische border. This is followed by Kurdistan Autonomous Region of ImNordirak.
Syria-Turkey continues operation Olive Branch The Turkish military is continuing to attack Kurdish troops in norrn Syria. According to estimates by UN, 5,000 people from region have already fled. © Photo: Ozan KOSE/AFP/Getty Images
The Turkish government under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is sichsicher that PYD wants to build a Kurdish state in long term, including TürkischesGebiet. In Ankara, one is accordingly nervous in times when borders that were drawn after First World War seem to be renegotiated everywhere in region. But it is not only this Gefahrvon outside which worries Turks. They also feel sichbedroht from inside: The PYD is to be close to PKK, which repeatedly perpetrates attacks on TürkischemBoden and is refore regarded by many as a terrorist organisation. From point of view of Turkey, Afrin is also about its internal security.
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The Militärinterventionpräventiv is primarily directed against US plan to build a Kurdish dominierteGrenztruppe of 30,000 soldiers in norrn Syria. With such a combat unit, WillWashington “Islamic State (IS) in long term. For Erdoğan, Jedochein pretext is that he is defeating extremists of is for and does not trust WeiterenUnterstützung of YPG by USA. That’s why he wants to create clear relationships quickly before someone else does. In addition, first Syrian refugees from Turkey KönnteAnkara return to Syria and settle in Afrin as soon as province is under Turkish control – so Erdoğan’s plan. At moment, however, it looks more like DieBewohner Afrins mselves have to flee soon. Even now, according to Schätzungender United Nations, 5,000 people are fleeing türkischenOffensive. On 50,000 more imagine yourself.
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Will Erdoğan be able to stabilize region with a kurzenund precise intervention against Kurds, as plan is? That would be an illusion, much more likely are persistent fights. DennMilitärinterventionen, which run fast and clean like a surgical operation, do not exist. This is demonstrated by examples from recent history in Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya. Turkey, in Syria, is more likely to wreak havoc than to create clarity. For several reasons.
Perhaps Turkey is able to break Diekurdische control over Afrin. Perhaps she will not be able to engage in inlong fights, but can win re within a few days or Wochendie and announce a quick victory. Direct Zusammenstößemit US forces must not fear m here, which are furr stationed Östlichauf or side of Euphrates.
