In theory, any of the nine movies nominated for Best Picture at the Feb. 26 Academy Awards could win the gold.
They’re all worthy contenders. Reality intrudes, however, when you crunch the numbers and analyze the tea leaves of Oscar season, via advance kudos and punditry. Then hard choices and tough calls must be made.
By my reckoning, five movies have a serious chance of winning the top prize. In descending order, they are La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge.
A sixth film, Hidden Figures, has a chance of overtaking the rest, by dint of its surging popularity. It’s currently leading all the other Best Picture challengers at the box office, including nominations champ La La Land.
These leaves Lion, Fences and Hell or High Water as the close-but-no-cigar players and the subject of my first Oscar Odds column this year:
Quick pitch (title, director, cast, synopsis):
Lion (Garth Davis): Separated as a child from his birth family in India, a questing Australian (Dev Patel) employs technology and ingenuity in a bid to reconnect with his roots;
Fences (Denzel Washington): A disillusioned former baseball player (Denzel Washington) and his steadfast wife (Viola Davis) wrestle with social limits and personal demons in 1950s Pittsburgh;
Hell or High Water (David Mackenzie): Two West Texas brothers (Chris Pine and Ben Foster), pursued by a wily lawman (Jeff Bridges), take on the bank threatening the family ranch.
Nominations:Lion (6), Fences (4), Hell or High Water (4).
Key early kudos:Lion (BAFTA Best Supporting Actor win for Patel); Fences (Golden Globes/SAG/BAFTA Best Supporting Actress wins for Davis, SAG Best Actor for Washington); Hell or High Water (Best Film Editing nom, NBR Best Supporting Actor win for Bridges).
Box office (domestic, U.S. dollars): Lion ($32.2 million); Fences ($54.3 million); Hell or High Water ($27 million).
Ladbrokes odds: Lion(50/1);Fences (100/1); Hell or High Water (150/1).
Paddy Power: Lion (60/1); Fences (66/1); Hell or High Water (100/1).
Sky Bet: Lion (80/1); Fences (100/1); Hell or High Water (100/1).
Why they could win: Each exhibits a high level of craftsmanship and each has been well received by audiences and critics alike.
Why they might not: All three are lacking Best Director noms, usually a fatal omission.
Howell’s line: When all is said and done, it really is a major achievement just to be nominated.
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