HOUSTON—It’s been easy for the Patriots. They lost one game with their starting QB, and fell a yard short of sending that game to overtime. They have played one elite opposing quarterback, and the playoffs have been a walk. The Patriots are really good, and haven’t been tested in a truly meaningful way.
But, Atlanta. Their offence is versatile and creative and terrifying, and the Patriots defence was only 16th in DVOA, the Football Outsiders advanced stat that measures quality of competition. Weighted towards end-of-season performance, it was ninth. Seattle’s was 10th, and Atlanta hung 36 on Seattle. The Falcons probably need something like that to win this game, but could absolutely get there.
But I keep coming back to the same thing: If you can’t get pressure on Tom Brady, he has enough to beat you. I don’t think Atlanta can get there. Atlanta’s offence can keep it close, but in that case, I believe in Bill Belichick and Brady. New England cornerback Logan Ryan was talking about pressure this past week, and he said this:
“A lot of people (think) you have to give some super effort for the Super Bowl. I think that experience (helps), of knowing maybe what it takes, what you need to do as a player, so your expectations aren’t too high for yourself, thinking I’ve got to come out here and play some perfect game for us to win.
“Performance at this level, the playoffs and all, there’s more added pressure, but it’s about being consistent and doing what got you there. Being consistent under pressure makes great players. Great players are just good all the time. You don’t need to be (Michael Jordan) every play.”
I think the Patriots know that, and it matters. They know it can be a long game, because of extra commercials and a longer halftime and how vivid every play will feel. The Patriots have a better defence, and the matchups tilt slightly in their favour. Brady, if he is not pressured, will feel no pressure. And he will win.
LINE: New England -3
PICK: New England 31-27
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