Consistent success in weekly head-to-head formats requires managers pursue a multitude of strategies to maintain an enduring edge. One simple angle to consider is maximizing games played. Which is to say, savvy managers can churn the bottom of our roster each week in an effort to deploy more players than their direct competition. Leveraging the schedule table and matchups ratings in the link below can help in identifying the ideal teams to target for streaming.
In the coming week, for example, we find the Dallas Mavericks play both Monday and Tuesday against two up-tempo opponents with inviting metrics in the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively. By securing shares of players like Yogi Ferrell — who leads the Mavs in minutes per game over the past week — and Seth Curry — averaging 15.8 points and 32 minutes per game over the past 11 starts, in which Dallas has gone 8-3. On Wednesday, investors can cut bait on Dallas and shift to shares to the Denver Nuggets or San Antonio Spurs, as both teams enjoy three games rife with fantasy-friendly ingredients to finish the week. No NBA team plays five games this week, but with some creative commodity management, fantasy managers can net up to six games with just two transactions from a single roster spot in the coming week.
Editor’s Picks
Avery Bradley, Jeff Teague among big risers in key statistical categories
Joe Kaiser takes a look at which players have either disappointed or impressed compared to past years statistical output in key fantasy categories, including Avery Bradley and Jeff Teague.
Top fantasy breakouts for second half
Minnesota wing Andrew Wiggins tops our list of fantasy players set to see statistics rise in the second half of the season.
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Joe Kaiser takes a look at which players have either disappointed or impressed compared to past years statistical output in key fantasy categories, including Avery Bradley and Jeff Teague.
Minnesota wing Andrew Wiggins tops our list of fantasy players set to see statistics rise in the second half of the season.
Another prudent strategy is to consider the information Vegas affords us for each NBA slate. Experienced daily fantasy players realize the impact the spread and point total can have on team and player production, but the desert can also inform our investments in redraft competition. When you are looking to stream and find it difficult to differentiate and discern value between an array of free agents, relying on the coveted combination of high point totals and tight point spreads can prove rewarding.
The point total, also known as the over/under, is the implied sum of points scored for a given game. For Friday, February 3, for example, we find the matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Nuggets set with ideal Vegas trends; the game claims a point total of 221.5 points, per the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and a point spread that favors Denver by just two points. From the robust total we can glean the game will prove offensively friendly and from the close spread we can infer a close game is projected, thus important members of each respective rotation should enjoy heavy minutes.
With Danilo Gallinari ruled out with injury tonight, investors can look to Gary Harris and Wilson Chandler to enjoy meaningful increases in usage and offensive opportunities. Chandler’s usage rate leaps by 2.5 percent with Gallinari off the court, for example. Harris is available in nearly 70 percent of ESPN leagues as of press time, while Chandler remains available in nearly 30 percent of leagues. For deeper leagues, we even find interest in streaming Darrell Arthur given the uptick in minutes and production we’ve witnessed sans Gallinari. Leveraging matchup ratings and schedule details while considering the telling trends and research tools Vegas affords us for each slate can prove critical for those seeking an edge during these challenging winter months of the NBA marathon.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team’s year-to-date and past 10 games’ statistics, their opponents’ numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team’s total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team’s weekly schedule.
The Chicago Bulls are on the road this week and continue to deal with internal drama, but with four games against up-tempo and fantasy-friendly Western Conference opponents, we find them positioned with a perfect rating for the week ahead. The Bulls are joined in this tier of “10” ratings by the Spurs and Heat. The Spurs-set with four home games-offer several helpful streaming assets, including Dewayne Dedmon, David Lee, and Davis Bertans. With regards to discouraging ratings, the Trail Blazers play just two games this week and thus net the lowest possible rating. Managers with heavy shares of Portland’s roster will want to employ the streaming strategies mentioned above.
The long season requires we evaluate trends in defined samples or slices of data. The Trail Blazers, for example, rank 25th in defensive rating for the season thanks to yielding 108.5 points per 100 possessions to opponents. Since the start of the new year, however, Portland has allowed just 104.5 points per 100 possessions, eighth fewest in the league over this sample. The infusion of Al-Farouq Aminu has proven critical, who has allowed opponents to shoot just 42 percent from the field while on the court since the start of January. Which is to say, we shouldn’t let season-long trends drive our decisions in DFS or redraft, and instead can look to more meaningful recent samples for confirmation. Hoops Stats offers a helpful positional matchup index we can sort by various segments, such as the past 10 games. Looking over the past 10 games with respect to defensive efficiency against point guards, we find some surprising results, such as the Spurs are 25th in defending point guards and both Utah and Detroit have struggled to defend the position over this sample.
In seeking out which players are surging, I always recommend the Player Rater’s valuable standard deviation valuation of the market. Over the past seven days we learn the 76ers’ T.J. McConnell is ninth on the index among point guards, ahead of the likes of John Wall and Russell Westbrook. This achievement is earned via an elite blend of steals and assists for a player available in over 60 percent of ESPN leagues.
We can also reference Hoops Stats to learn which players are enjoying the most significant positive and negative trends in efficiency over recent samples. For example. It could be a good time to add Robert Covington, as he’s first among small forwards in improved efficiency over the past 10 games, while trading for Jae Crowder could prove profitable given his hot hand from the field has fueled a valuable increase in overall efficiency. Among centers, we find the New York Knicks’ Willy Hernangomez second behind only Nikola Jokic in improved efficiency over the past 10 games. Just behind the Knicks’ surging big is the Lakers’ Ivica Zubac, while we can add both of these thriving centers for free in the vast majority of ESPN leagues. With an eye on slicing the season into these meaningful samples, we can identify important ascendant commodities.
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