As Canadians look south in appalled fascination at the train-wreck that is the Trump administration, many take solace in the thought that nothing like that could ever happen here.
Think again. A sobering new survey shows that trust in major institutions in this country is at an all-time low, and falling fast. Half of Canadians worry that newcomers are damaging our economy and “national culture.” They feel left behind by globalization and rapid change. And they have little confidence that existing elites can address those challenges.
If all that sounds familiar, it’s because it is. It’s the same toxic stew of distrust, fear and alienation that led to Donald Trump’s upset victory in the United States, the Brexit vote in Britain, and the rise of right-wing populist parties in France and elsewhere.
It’s a sharp warning to Canada’s established order – in politics, business and the news media – that the ingredients are already in place for the emergence of a populist force in this country. And it’s a reminder to the Trudeau Liberals that support for their open, progressive style of politics may well be shakier than they think. Other countries have shown the political mood can change in a flash, and there’s no guarantee that it can’t happen here as well.
The evidence comes in the latest version of an international “trust barometer” put together by Edelman, a communications company. The index has been compiled for 17 years, and for the first time it puts Canada in the category of “distrusters” – countries where most people say they don’t have confidence in civic institutions.
Here’s a sample of the key findings for Canada:
- The “trust gap” between the most educated, richest quarter of the population and all the rest is the widest it’s ever been. It nearly doubled in the past year and is now close to the level in the U.S., Britain and France – all countries rocked by populist politics.
- Trust in business has declined by 6 percentage points in the past year, from 56 to 50 per cent. Trust in the news media is down by 10 points to just 45 per cent. And trust in government is also down 10 points, to 43 per cent. The pollsters call the rapid decline in the course of just one year “dramatic.”
- More than half (55 per cent) of Canadians say the system isn’t working for them. Half say the influx of people from other countries is “damaging our economy and national culture.”
- Eighty per cent of Canadians think the “elites” who run major institutions are out of touch with regular people. And 60 per cent don’t trust them to address the challenges facing the country.
It’s not hard to see where this is going – or at least where it could go.
Politicians do surveys like this all the time, and they know which way the wind is blowing. The Harper Conservatives tried playing on fear of foreigners in the 2015 campaign. And leadership candidate Kellie Leitch sings the same song with her call to have immigrants subjected to a “Canadian values” test and her tirades against “self-hating Canadian elites.”
The Trudeau Liberals’ answer is to focus on the needs of “middle-class Canadians.” Their theory seems to be that the root of discontent is economic. If non-elite folks see jobs being created and evidence that the system still works for people like them, then they won’t be tempted to fall for the type of populist pitches that have gotten traction in other countries.
The Liberals are right to focus on jobs and middle-class worries. But if the new trust index is right, things are still going seriously sideways. In the past year alone, while Justin Trudeau has been spreading his “sunny ways” message across the land, Canadians’ trust in major institutions has dropped dramatically.
There’s no evidence that is directly linked to the government’s performance. And it’s worth keeping in mind that big, historic changes are at work: globalization has transformed the economy, technology has reshaped the nature of work, and trust in traditional news media has been profoundly shaken.
But if destructive populism of the Trump variety is to be avoided, so-called elites in all areas have to listen carefully to the message coming through in this survey and others.
Politicians have to make sure they pay close attention to the day-to-day concerns of ordinary people.It’s easy to lose touch or become complacent. And they must be conscious that symbolic blunders like frolicking in the sun with billionaires just feed cynicism about out-of-touch elites.
The news media have to take all this on board, as well. To regain trust they have to resist the all-too-common temptation to dismiss the fears of ordinary people as unfounded or even unworthy. Fear of change, it needs to be said, doesn’t necessarily equate with prejudice.
Canada has so far managed to hold firm to progressive values while the populist storm rages around us. That can continue – but only if voters believe their concerns are being heard, and acted on.
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